Niger Tornadoes
vs
Barau FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Niger Tornadoes
1 – 0 Predicted score · 19% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.61.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC
| Probability | Niger Tornadoes | Draw | Barau FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.6% | 34.0% | 18.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 47.6% | 34.0% | 18.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Niger Tornadoes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.15 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC match preview
Niger Tornadoes host Barau FC in a Nigeria Premier Football League matchup on October 30, 2026. According to our model, Niger Tornadoes have a 48% probability of winning, while Barau FC stands at 18%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Niger Tornadoes, with an expected goals tally of 1.15 compared to Barau FC's 0.61. Recent form shows Niger Tornadoes with a record of W-D-W-L-D-L, while Barau FC has D-D-L-D-W-D.
In their last two encounters, both teams have secured one win each, indicating a competitive matchup. The probability of a draw is 34%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 32%. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the outcome of the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Niger Tornadoes and Barau FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.76
Niger Tornadoes and Barau FC attack and defence ratings
Niger Tornadoes
Barau FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Before and after this match
Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Niger Tornadoes | 47.6% | 2.10 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 74.2% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.7% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Niger Tornadoes | 47.6% |
| Draw | 34.0% | |
| Barau FC | 18.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 74.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.3% |
| No | 67.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 66.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Niger Tornadoes win | 21.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.4% | |
| Loss | 52.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 18.6% |
| 0-0 | 18.5% | |
| 1-1 | 13.3% |
Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC stats
Niger Tornadoes and Barau FC recent form
| Niger Tornadoes |
WDWLDL |
| Barau FC |
DDLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Niger Tornadoes and Barau FC season so far
Niger Tornadoes record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Barau FC record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Niger Tornadoes vs Barau FC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Barau FC | Niger Tornadoes | Nigeria Premier Football League | 2-1 |
| 2025-12-28 | Niger Tornadoes | Barau FC | Nigeria Premier Football League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.