Kwara United
vs
Bendel Insurance
Garuda Lions Prediction: Kwara United
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance
| Probability | Kwara United | Draw | Bendel Insurance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.7% | 23.4% | 16.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 59.7% | 23.4% | 16.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kwara United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 0.97.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance match preview
Kwara United faces Bendel Insurance in the Nigeria Premier Football League with a projected probability of 64% for a home win. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, occurring with an 11% chance, while there is a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance that both teams will score. Kwara United's expected goals stand at 2.16, compared to Bendel Insurance's 0.94.
In recent form, Kwara United has recorded a draw, two losses, and two wins, while Bendel Insurance has experienced a mixed run of results with two wins and four losses. Historically, in their last two encounters, Kwara United has not secured a win, with Bendel Insurance winning both matches. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate certainty in the forecast.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kwara United and Bendel Insurance expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Kwara United and Bendel Insurance attack and defence ratings
Kwara United
Bendel Insurance
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
- Doma United v Ikorodu City — match page
- Enyimba vs Kun Khalifat FC — team news & stats
- Inter Lagos vs Ranchers Bees
- Kano Pillars v Nasarawa United — match page
- Katsina United vs Sporting Lagos — team news & stats
- Plateau United vs Warri Wolves — team news & stats
- Rivers United vs Enugu Rangers
- Shooting Stars v Abia Warriors — match page
Before and after this match
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 59.7% |
| Draw | 23.4% | |
| Bendel Insurance | 16.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kwara United win | 36.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 40.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 10.0% |
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance stats
Kwara United and Bendel Insurance recent form
| Kwara United |
DDLWLW |
| Bendel Insurance |
WLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kwara United and Bendel Insurance season so far
Kwara United record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 9 matches.
Bendel Insurance record
- They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
Kwara United vs Bendel Insurance head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | Kwara United | Bendel Insurance | Nigeria Premier Football League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Bendel Insurance | Kwara United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.