Barau FC
vs
Kwara United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barau FC
2 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.63.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Barau FC vs Kwara United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Barau FC vs Kwara United
| Probability | Barau FC | Draw | Kwara United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.4% | 22.3% | 10.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 67.4% | 22.3% | 10.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Barau FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.63.
Barau FC vs Kwara United match preview
Barau FC is favored to win against Kwara United with a probability of 70%, while the chances of a draw stand at 20% and Kwara United at 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Barau FC, with a 14% likelihood. The expected goals for Barau FC are 2.10 compared to 0.67 for Kwara United, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, Barau FC has recorded two draws, a loss, and two wins in their last five matches, while Kwara United has managed one win, two losses, and two draws in the same period. The model suggests a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Barau FC and Kwara United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.56
Barau FC and Kwara United attack and defence ratings
Barau FC
Kwara United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
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- Abia Warriors v Niger Tornadoes — match page
- Bendel Insurance vs Rivers United
- Ikorodu City v Shooting Stars — match page
- Kun Khalifat FC vs Inter Lagos
- Nasarawa United v Enyimba — match page
- Warri Wolves vs Kano Pillars
Before and after this match
Barau FC vs Kwara United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barau FC | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.2% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barau FC win | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barau FC | 67.4% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Kwara United | 10.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.8% |
| No | 59.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barau FC win | 42.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 32.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Barau FC vs Kwara United stats
Barau FC and Kwara United recent form
| Barau FC |
DDLDWD |
| Kwara United |
DLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Barau FC and Kwara United season so far
Barau FC record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kwara United record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Barau FC vs Kwara United head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Kwara United | Barau FC | Nigeria Premier Football League | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Barau FC | Kwara United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.