Nigeria Premier Football League
·
Full time
·Matchday 9
Kwara United
vs
Abia Warriors
1 – 1 Full time
Kwara United
69%
Draw
21%
Abia Warriors
9%
Kwara United vs Abia Warriors overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kwara United vs Abia Warriors
| Probability | Kwara United | Draw | Abia Warriors |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 69.4% | 21.3% | 9.3% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 69.4% | 21.3% | 9.3% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Kwara United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.00 vs 0.61.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
92%
2+ goals
74%
3+ goals
48%
No goals
8%
Kwara United and Abia Warriors expected goals
Kwara United
2.00
Abia Warriors
0.61
Total expected goals: 2.60
Kwara United and Abia Warriors attack and defence ratings
Kwara United
Attack
1.07 +7%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Abia Warriors
Attack
0.91 -9%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Kwara United vs Abia Warriors: result vs prediction
Kwara United 1 – 1 Abia Warriors
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
- Shooting Stars vs Ranchers Bees — team news & stats
- Doma United vs Kun Khalifat FC — team news & stats
- Enyimba vs Warri Wolves
- Inter Lagos v Nasarawa United — match page
- Kano Pillars vs Katsina United — team news & stats
- Niger Tornadoes v Ikorodu City — match page
- Plateau United vs Sporting Lagos — team news & stats
- Rivers United v Barau FC — match page
Before and after this match
Kwara United vs Abia Warriors markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 69.4% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.8% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Kwara United win | 44.5% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kwara United | 69.4% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Abia Warriors | 9.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.2% |
| No | 59.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 90.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Kwara United win | 44.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.8% | |
| Loss | 30.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 14.8% |
| 1-0 | 13.9% | |
| 1-1 | 9.9% |
Kwara United vs Abia Warriors stats
Kwara United and Abia Warriors recent form
| Kwara United |
LWLWLW |
| Abia Warriors |
DLWLWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kwara United and Abia Warriors going into this match
Kwara United record
- They have won 3 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Abia Warriors record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
Kwara United vs Abia Warriors head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
1Kwara United wins
4Draws
5Abia Warriors wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-22 | Abia Warriors | Kwara United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Kwara United | Abia Warriors | Nigeria Premier Football League | 0-1 |
| 2025-02-26 | Kwara United | Abia Warriors | NPFL | 0-0 |
| 2024-10-13 | Abia Warriors | Kwara United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-29 | Abia Warriors | Kwara United | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Kwara United | Abia Warriors | NPFL | 1-0 |
| 2022-04-20 | Kwara United | Abia Warriors | NPFL | 1-1 |
| 2022-01-03 | Abia Warriors | Kwara United | NPFL | 1-1 |
| 2021-07-11 | Abia Warriors | Kwara United | NPFL | 2-1 |
| 2021-02-24 | Kwara United | Abia Warriors | NPFL | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.