Ikorodu City
vs
Kwara United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ikorodu City
2 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ikorodu City vs Kwara United
| Probability | Ikorodu City | Draw | Kwara United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.5% | 24.9% | 17.6% |
| Market | 63.5% | 24.3% | 12.2% |
| Final | 62.0% | 24.4% | 13.6% |
| Edge | -6.0% | +0.6% | +5.4% |
Why Ikorodu City
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 0.92.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United match preview
Ikorodu City is set to face Kwara United in the Nigeria Premier Football League on October 10, 2026. According to model probabilities, Ikorodu City has a 57% chance of winning, while a draw stands at 25% and Kwara United at 18%. The expected goals for Ikorodu City is 1.82, compared to Kwara United's 0.92, indicating a significant offensive edge for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Ikorodu City has recorded a mix of results with their last five matches showing one win, two draws, and two losses. Conversely, Kwara United has experienced a tougher stretch, winning two and losing three of their last five games. Historically, Ikorodu City has been dominant in their last two encounters, securing one win and one draw against Kwara United, who have yet to register a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ikorodu City and Kwara United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.74
Ikorodu City and Kwara United attack and defence ratings
Ikorodu City
Kwara United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
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- Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes — team news & stats
- Abia Warriors vs Rivers United — team news & stats
- Barau FC vs Enugu Rangers
- Kun Khalifat FC vs Shooting Stars — team news & stats
- Nasarawa United vs Doma United
- Plateau United v Kano Pillars — match page
- Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance
Before and after this match
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ikorodu City | 62.0% | 1.61 | -6.0% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ikorodu City | 62.0% |
| Draw | 24.4% | |
| Kwara United | 13.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 48.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.5% |
| No | 48.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ikorodu City win | 33.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.7% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 10.7% | |
| 1-0 | 10.6% |
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United stats
Ikorodu City and Kwara United recent form
| Ikorodu City |
LDWLDD |
| Kwara United |
WLWLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ikorodu City and Kwara United season so far
Ikorodu City record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kwara United record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Ikorodu City | Kwara United | Nigeria Premier Football League | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Kwara United | Ikorodu City | Nigeria Premier Football League | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-09 | Ikorodu City | Kwara United | NPFL | 2-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Kwara United | Ikorodu City | NPFL | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ikorodu City vs Kwara United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 63.5%, draw 24.3%, away 12.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 3.74 | 7.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 3.60 | 8.50 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 3.40 | 6.30 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 3.80 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 3.55 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.40 | 3.74 | 7.10 |