Nasarawa United
vs
Doma United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Nasarawa United
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
Nasarawa United vs Doma United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nasarawa United vs Doma United
| Probability | Nasarawa United | Draw | Doma United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.0% | 28.8% | 18.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 53.0% | 28.8% | 18.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Nasarawa United
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.77.
Nasarawa United vs Doma United match preview
Nasarawa United is set to face Doma United in the Nigeria Premier Football League on October 11, 2026. The model gives Nasarawa United a 53% chance of winning, while Doma United has an 18% probability of securing a victory, with a 29% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Nasarawa United might score 1.48 goals compared to Doma United's 0.77, indicating a potential advantage for the home side.
In terms of recent form, Nasarawa United has recorded a mixed bag with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Doma United has shown stronger performance with three wins, one draw, and a loss in their recent outings. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Nasarawa United, occurring with a 14% probability.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nasarawa United and Doma United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.25
Nasarawa United and Doma United attack and defence ratings
Nasarawa United
Doma United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- Ikorodu City v Kwara United — match page
- Ranchers Bees vs Niger Tornadoes — team news & stats
- Abia Warriors vs Rivers United — team news & stats
- Barau FC vs Enugu Rangers
- Kun Khalifat FC vs Shooting Stars — team news & stats
- Plateau United v Kano Pillars — match page
- Sporting Lagos vs Bendel Insurance
- Warri Wolves v Inter Lagos — match page
Before and after this match
Nasarawa United vs Doma United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nasarawa United | 53.0% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.8% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.1% | 2.13 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nasarawa United | 53.0% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Doma United | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Nasarawa United win | 27.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 47.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 13.2% | |
| 0-0 | 11.7% |
Nasarawa United vs Doma United stats
Nasarawa United and Doma United recent form
| Nasarawa United |
DWLDLW |
| Doma United |
WLDLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.