Ballymena United
vs
Linfield
0 – 3 Full time
Ballymena United vs Linfield overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ballymena United vs Linfield
| Probability | Ballymena United | Draw | Linfield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.4% | 28.8% | 49.8% |
| Market | 18.8% | 24.0% | 57.3% |
| Final | 19.4% | 25.2% | 55.4% |
| Edge | +0.7% | +1.2% | -1.9% |
Why Linfield
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 0.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ballymena United and Linfield expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Ballymena United and Linfield attack and defence ratings
Ballymena United
Linfield
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ballymena United vs Linfield: result vs prediction
Ballymena United 0 – 3 Linfield
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ballymena United vs Linfield markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Linfield | 55.4% | 1.81 | -1.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.2% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ballymena United | 19.4% |
| Draw | 25.2% | |
| Linfield | 55.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.8% |
| No | 53.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 80.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Linfield win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 50.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | |
| 0-0 | 10.6% |
Ballymena United vs Linfield stats
Ballymena United and Linfield recent form
| Ballymena United |
DLWLWW |
| Linfield |
WDWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ballymena United and Linfield going into this match
Ballymena United record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
Linfield record
- They have won 11 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ballymena United vs Linfield head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Linfield | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2026-01-31 | Linfield | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Linfield | Ballymena United | League Cup | 1-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Linfield | Ballymena United | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-16 | Ballymena United | Linfield | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-0 |
| 2025-02-07 | Ballymena United | Linfield | Premiership | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-09 | Linfield | Ballymena United | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-10 | Ballymena United | Linfield | Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2024-02-24 | Linfield | Ballymena United | Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-03 | Linfield | Ballymena United | Irish Cup | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ballymena United vs Linfield odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.8%, draw 24.0%, away 57.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.85 | 3.70 | 1.59 |
| Bet365 | 4.75 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 4.20 | 3.25 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 4.70 | 3.85 | 1.62 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 3.90 | 1.55 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 3.95 | 1.60 |
| Marathonbet | 4.75 | 3.70 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 5.54 | 4.12 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.80 | 1.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .