Larne
vs
Dungannon Swifts
3 – 0 Full time
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Larne vs Dungannon Swifts
| Probability | Larne | Draw | Dungannon Swifts |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.6% | 23.6% | 19.8% |
| Market | 62.9% | 20.6% | 16.5% |
| Final | 61.3% | 21.3% | 17.3% |
| Edge | -1.6% | +0.7% | +0.8% |
Why Larne
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.11.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Larne and Dungannon Swifts expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Larne and Dungannon Swifts attack and defence ratings
Larne
Dungannon Swifts
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts: result vs prediction
Larne 3 – 0 Dungannon Swifts
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 61.3% | 1.63 | -1.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.4% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Larne | 61.3% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 17.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Larne win | 34.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 43.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.9% |
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts stats
Larne and Dungannon Swifts recent form
| Larne |
LWDWLL |
| Dungannon Swifts |
WDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Larne and Dungannon Swifts going into this match
Larne record
- They have won 8 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 1.4 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Dungannon Swifts record
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 8-0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-29 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Northern Ireland Premiership | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-01 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Premiership | 1-1 |
| 2025-02-22 | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-23 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Premiership | 0-1 |
| 2024-10-06 | Larne | Dungannon Swifts | Premiership | 0-3 |
| 2024-01-20 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Premiership | 0-2 |
| 2023-10-13 | Dungannon Swifts | Larne | Premiership | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Larne vs Dungannon Swifts odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.9%, draw 20.6%, away 16.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.40 | 5.57 |
| Bet365 | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.36 | 3.75 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.50 | 4.35 | 5.30 |
| Betfair | 1.40 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.48 | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.42 | 4.40 | 5.35 |
| Pinnacle | 1.48 | 4.92 | 5.77 |
| William Hill | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .