Moss
vs
Sogndal
2 – 2 Full time
Moss vs Sogndal overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Moss vs Sogndal
| Probability | Moss | Draw | Sogndal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.5% | 18.7% | 52.7% |
| Market | 42.8% | 24.2% | 33.0% |
| Final | 39.2% | 22.8% | 37.9% |
| Edge | -14.3% | -5.5% | +19.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Moss and Sogndal expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.85
Moss and Sogndal attack and defence ratings
Moss
Sogndal
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Moss vs Sogndal: result vs prediction
Moss 2 – 2 Sogndal
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 19 fixtures
Before and after this match
Moss vs Sogndal markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moss | 39.2% | 2.55 | -14.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.2% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.5% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.2% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 71.4% | 1.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Moss | 39.2% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| Sogndal | 37.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 86.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 13.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 82.5% |
| No | 17.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Moss win | 15.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 13.3% | |
| Loss | 71.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-2 | 6.5% |
| 1-2 | 6.3% | |
| 2-3 | 6.0% |
Moss vs Sogndal stats
Moss and Sogndal recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Moss and Sogndal going into this match
Moss record
- They have won 5 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sogndal record
- They have won 6 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 20 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Moss vs Sogndal head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Sogndal | Moss | Norway 1. Division | 2-4 |
| 2025-08-23 | Sogndal | Moss | Norway 1. Division | 3-1 |
| 2025-07-30 | Moss | Sogndal | Norway 1. Division | 3-1 |
| 2024-08-19 | Moss | Sogndal | 1. Division | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-20 | Sogndal | Moss | 1. Division | 1-0 |
| 2023-10-07 | Sogndal | Moss | 1. Division | 2-1 |
| 2023-06-07 | Sogndal | Moss | NM Cupen | 2-0 |
| 2023-04-23 | Moss | Sogndal | 1. Division | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Moss vs Sogndal odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 24.2%, away 33.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.10 | 3.85 | 2.75 |
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.96 | 2.79 |
| 888Sport | 2.38 | 3.75 | 2.38 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.75 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.80 | 2.87 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.80 | 2.70 |
| Dafabet | 2.14 | 3.90 | 2.90 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 3.96 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.20 | 4.01 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.16 | 3.47 | 2.63 |
| Superbet | 2.17 | 3.75 | 2.82 |
| Unibet | 2.16 | 3.80 | 2.65 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.60 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .