Leixoes
vs
União de Leiria
2 – 4 Full time
Leixoes vs União de Leiria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Leixoes vs União de Leiria
| Probability | Leixoes | Draw | União de Leiria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.1% | 25.2% | 22.7% |
| Market | 39.9% | 28.3% | 31.8% |
| Final | 42.9% | 27.6% | 29.5% |
| Edge | +12.2% | -3.1% | -9.1% |
Why Leixoes
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Leixoes below the model: +12.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Leixoes and União de Leiria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.94
Leixoes and União de Leiria attack and defence ratings
Leixoes
União de Leiria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Leixoes vs União de Leiria: result vs prediction
Leixoes 2 – 4 União de Leiria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Leixoes vs União de Leiria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 42.9% | 2.33 | +12.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 1.77 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.9% | 2.09 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leixoes | 42.9% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| União de Leiria | 29.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.8% |
| No | 42.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Leixoes win | 29.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.2% | |
| Loss | 47.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.6% |
Leixoes vs União de Leiria stats
Leixoes and União de Leiria recent form
| Leixoes |
WLWWLW |
| União de Leiria |
LLDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Leixoes and União de Leiria going into this match
Leixoes record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Leixoes vs União de Leiria head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-08 | Leixoes | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-25 | União de Leiria | Leixoes | Segunda Liga | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Leixoes vs União de Leiria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.9%, draw 28.3%, away 31.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.32 | 3.20 | 2.90 |
| 1xBet | 2.37 | 3.25 | 2.91 |
| 888Sport | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Betano | 2.35 | 3.30 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.38 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.89 |
| Pinnacle | 2.43 | 3.33 | 2.97 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.00 | 2.69 |
| Superbet | 2.35 | 3.25 | 2.95 |
| Unibet | 2.16 | 3.15 | 2.95 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.00 | 2.80 |