União de Leiria
vs
Tondela
2 – 0 Full time
União de Leiria vs Tondela overview
Garuda Lions analysis: União de Leiria vs Tondela
| Probability | União de Leiria | Draw | Tondela |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53.6% | 24.8% | 21.6% |
| Market | 43.8% | 28.2% | 28.0% |
| Final | 46.3% | 27.3% | 26.4% |
| Edge | +9.8% | -3.4% | -6.4% |
Why União de Leiria
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.11.
- The market prices União de Leiria below the model: +9.8 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
União de Leiria and Tondela expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.97
União de Leiria and Tondela attack and defence ratings
União de Leiria
Tondela
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
União de Leiria vs Tondela: result vs prediction
União de Leiria 2 – 0 Tondela
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
União de Leiria vs Tondela markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 46.3% | 2.16 | +9.8% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.4% | 2.16 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | União de Leiria | 46.3% |
| Draw | 27.3% | |
| Tondela | 26.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.7% |
| No | 42.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | União de Leiria win | 31.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 46.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
União de Leiria vs Tondela stats
União de Leiria and Tondela recent form
| União de Leiria |
WLLDLL |
| Tondela |
LLWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
União de Leiria and Tondela going into this match
Tondela record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
União de Leiria vs Tondela head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-16 | União de Leiria | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-01-04 | Tondela | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga | 1-4 |
| 2024-08-02 | União de Leiria | Tondela | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-24 | Tondela | União de Leiria | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-01 | União de Leiria | Tondela | Segunda Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
União de Leiria vs Tondela odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.8%, draw 28.2%, away 28.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.12 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| 1xBet | 2.11 | 3.36 | 3.31 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.20 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.35 | 3.45 |
| Marathonbet | 2.09 | 3.36 | 3.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.15 | 3.35 | 3.34 |
| Superbet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.35 |
| Unibet | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.15 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .