Academica
vs
Lusitânia Lourosa
0 – 2 Full time
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa
| Probability | Academica | Draw | Lusitânia Lourosa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.4% | 28.4% | 20.2% |
| Market | 43.0% | 31.5% | 25.5% |
| Final | 45.1% | 30.7% | 24.2% |
| Edge | +8.4% | -3.1% | -5.3% |
Why Academica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.86.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 4 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Academica below the model: +8.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Academica and Lusitânia Lourosa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
Academica and Lusitânia Lourosa attack and defence ratings
Academica
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa: result vs prediction
Academica 0 – 2 Lusitânia Lourosa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 45.1% | 2.22 | +8.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.8% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.6% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Academica | 45.1% |
| Draw | 30.7% | |
| Lusitânia Lourosa | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.2% |
| No | 53.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Academica win | 27.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 48.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 1-0 | 12.9% | |
| 2-0 | 10.6% |
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa stats
Academica and Lusitânia Lourosa recent form
| Academica |
WWWL |
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
DWWLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 4 completed matches.
Academica and Lusitânia Lourosa going into this match
Academica record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-20 | Academica | Lusitânia Lourosa | Liga 3 | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Lusitânia Lourosa | Academica | Liga 3 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Academica vs Lusitânia Lourosa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.8%, draw 31.5%, away 25.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.14 | 2.92 | 3.60 |
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 2.80 | 3.94 |
| 888Sport | 2.25 | 2.90 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 2.88 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.14 | 2.80 | 3.92 |
| Pinnacle | 2.19 | 2.73 | 4.15 |
| SBO | 1.95 | 2.90 | 3.18 |
| Superbet | 2.12 | 3.05 | 3.65 |
| Unibet | 2.14 | 2.95 | 3.20 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .