Lusitânia Lourosa
vs
AVS
2 – 1 Full time
| 12′ | Lazar Rosić | ||
| 21′ | Ponck | ||
| 26′ | D. Collard | ||
| 30′ | Rodrigo Pinho | ||
| 35′ | Roni | ||
| 45′ | Fabinho | ||
| 61′ | A. KeitaG. Neiva | ||
| 61′ | L. RosicB. Conde | ||
| 61′ | AndreyHiago Santos | ||
| 62′ | PauliteM. Borges | ||
| 63′ | FabinhoM. Teixeira | ||
| 72′ | João Santos | ||
| 72′ | J. SantosJ. Silva | ||
| 72′ | S. MandiangDanny | ||
| 78′ | RoniJ. Meireles | ||
| 81′ | Danny | ||
| 82′ | Daniel Rivas | ||
| 84′ | ArsenioA. Montez | ||
| 86′ | Talles WanderA. Sousa | ||
| 87′ | M. Borges |
Match stats
| 25 | Shots | 10 |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 47 | Possession % | 53 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS
| Probability | Lusitânia Lourosa | Draw | AVS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.7% | 31.9% | 30.5% |
| Market | 41.1% | 29.1% | 29.8% |
| Final | 40.2% | 29.8% | 30.0% |
| Edge | -3.4% | +2.8% | +0.6% |
Why Lusitânia Lourosa
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lusitânia Lourosa and AVS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.18
Lusitânia Lourosa and AVS attack and defence ratings
Lusitânia Lourosa
AVS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS: result vs prediction
Lusitânia Lourosa 2 – 1 AVS
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 40.2% | 2.49 | -3.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.3% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lusitânia Lourosa | 40.2% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| AVS | 30.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 62.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.2% |
| No | 54.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lusitânia Lourosa win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 62.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-0 | 11.8% |
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS stats
Lusitânia Lourosa and AVS recent form
| Lusitânia Lourosa |
WDWWLL |
| AVS |
WDDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Lusitânia Lourosa vs AVS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.1%, draw 29.1%, away 29.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.18 | 3.15 | 3.15 |
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.18 | 3.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.20 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.32 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| Dafabet | 2.37 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.18 | 3.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| SBO | 2.15 | 3.08 | 2.94 |
| Superbet | 2.35 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Unibet | 2.12 | 3.05 | 3.10 |
| William Hill | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .