Penafiel
vs
Academica
4 – 1 Full time
| 24′ | C. Moreiralano Imbene | ||
| 36′ | Pedro Sa | ||
| 40′ | Hélder Lopes | ||
| 42′ | Davo | ||
| 45′ | Pedro Sá | ||
| 46′ | DavoF. Varela | ||
| 46′ | J. SinisterraM. Tavares | ||
| 53′ | Àlex Carbonell | ||
| 57′ | J. Pinto | ||
| 61′ | KakaR. Gomes | ||
| 61′ | I. FaureA. Coundoul | ||
| 62′ | Max Svensson | ||
| 71′ | M. Svensson | ||
| 74′ | Àlex Carbonell | ||
| 74′ | Àlex Carbonell | ||
| 79′ | M. SvenssonR. Schutte | ||
| 79′ | R. TeixeiraH. Nunes | ||
| 79′ | Marcos PauloJ. Ribeiro Oliveira | ||
| 80′ | André Schutte | ||
| 83′ | J. SanchezDouglas Borel | ||
| 83′ | J. PintoM. Oliveira | ||
| 86′ | Ni | ||
| 90′ | Miguel Oliveira | ||
| 90′ | Goncalo Negrao | ||
| 90′ | L. Silva |
Penafiel vs Academica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs Academica
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | Academica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.8% | 28.6% | 31.6% |
| Market | 43.8% | 29.5% | 26.8% |
| Final | 42.8% | 29.2% | 28.0% |
| Edge | -3.9% | -0.9% | +4.8% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and Academica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.63
Penafiel and Academica attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
Academica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penafiel vs Academica: result vs prediction
Penafiel 4 – 1 Academica
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 5 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs Academica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 42.8% | 2.34 | -3.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.1% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 42.8% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Academica | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.5% |
| No | 45.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 19.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.5% | |
| Loss | 60.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.9% | |
| 2-1 | 8.7% |
Penafiel vs Academica stats
Penafiel and Academica recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penafiel and Academica going into this match
Penafiel record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Academica record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Penafiel vs Academica head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-04-16 | Academica | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-12-05 | Penafiel | Academica | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-07 | Penafiel | Academica | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2020-10-18 | Academica | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2020-03-05 | Academica | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 3-0 |
| 2019-10-26 | Penafiel | Academica | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
| 2019-03-02 | Academica | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2018-10-29 | Penafiel | Academica | Segunda Liga | 2-1 |
| 2018-03-04 | Academica | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
| 2017-10-07 | Penafiel | Academica | Segunda Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penafiel vs Academica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.6%, draw 29.4%, away 27.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.13 | 3.15 | 3.50 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.40 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.15 | 3.45 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.30 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.11 | 3.15 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.16 | 3.21 | 3.65 |
| Unibet | 2.20 | 3.05 | 3.00 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .