AVS vs Feirense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AVS vs Feirense
| Probability | AVS | Draw | Feirense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.8% | 36.0% | 23.2% |
| Market | 47.1% | 29.2% | 23.7% |
| Final | 45.6% | 30.9% | 23.6% |
| Edge | -6.3% | +6.8% | -0.5% |
Why AVS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.00 vs 0.69.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
80%
2+ goals
52%
3+ goals
24%
No goals
20%
AVS and Feirense expected goals
AVS
1.00
Feirense
0.69
Total expected goals: 1.69
AVS and Feirense attack and defence ratings
AVS
Attack
0.88 -12%
Defence
0.96 -4%
Feirense
Attack
0.62 -38%
Defence
0.91 -9%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
AVS vs Feirense: result vs prediction
AVS 2 – 0 Feirense
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
AVS vs Feirense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AVS | 45.6% | 2.20 | -6.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 75.9% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 67.2% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.4% | 1.68 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AVS | 45.6% |
| Draw | 30.9% | |
| Feirense | 23.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 24.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 75.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 32.8% |
| No | 67.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | AVS win | 16.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 59.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 19.6% |
| 1-0 | 17.2% | |
| 1-1 | 14.0% |
AVS vs Feirense stats
AVS vs Feirense head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
AVS vs Feirense odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 47.2%, draw 29.3%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.90 | 3.15 | 4.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.16 | 3.89 |
| 888Sport | 1.75 | 3.10 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.93 | 3.20 | 4.20 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.10 | 3.75 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.16 | 3.88 |
| Unibet | 2.04 | 3.00 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 2.90 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.95 ▲ +0.20
X
3.15 ▲ +0.05
2
3.88 ▼ -0.52
14 snapshots recorded, from .