Amarante
vs
Benfica B
1 – 0 Full time
Amarante vs Benfica B overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Amarante vs Benfica B
| Probability | Amarante | Draw | Benfica B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 36.7% | 34.2% | 29.1% |
| Market | 33.0% | 29.3% | 37.7% |
| Final | 33.9% | 30.5% | 35.6% |
| Edge | +3.7% | +4.9% | -8.6% |
Why Benfica B
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Amarante and Benfica B expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.92
Amarante and Benfica B attack and defence ratings
Amarante
Benfica B
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Amarante vs Benfica B: result vs prediction
Amarante 1 – 0 Benfica B
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Amarante vs Benfica B markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Benfica B | 35.6% | 2.81 | -8.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.5% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Amarante | 33.9% |
| Draw | 30.5% | |
| Benfica B | 35.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.3% |
| No | 60.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 64.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Benfica B win | 10.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.8% | |
| Loss | 70.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.0% |
| 1-1 | 14.8% | |
| 1-0 | 13.8% |
Amarante vs Benfica B stats
Amarante and Benfica B recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Amarante and Benfica B going into this match
Benfica B record
- They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Amarante vs Benfica B head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Amarante vs Benfica B odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 33.0%, draw 29.3%, away 37.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.80 | 3.15 | 2.41 |
| Unibet | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .