Penafiel
vs
Sporting CP B
2 – 0 Full time
Penafiel vs Sporting CP B overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Penafiel vs Sporting CP B
| Probability | Penafiel | Draw | Sporting CP B |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.0% | 33.7% | 25.3% |
| Market | 36.8% | 29.3% | 33.8% |
| Final | 37.9% | 30.4% | 31.7% |
| Edge | +4.1% | +4.4% | -8.5% |
Why Penafiel
- The market prices Penafiel below the model: +4.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Penafiel and Sporting CP B expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.93
Penafiel and Sporting CP B attack and defence ratings
Penafiel
Sporting CP B
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Penafiel vs Sporting CP B: result vs prediction
Penafiel 2 – 0 Sporting CP B
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Penafiel vs Sporting CP B markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 37.9% | 2.64 | +4.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Penafiel | 37.9% |
| Draw | 30.4% | |
| Sporting CP B | 31.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 69.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.7% |
| No | 61.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 68.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Penafiel win | 17.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.4% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 15.9% |
| 1-0 | 14.9% | |
| 1-1 | 14.5% |
Penafiel vs Sporting CP B stats
Penafiel and Sporting CP B recent form
| Penafiel |
DLLWLW |
| Sporting CP B |
WWDLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Penafiel and Sporting CP B going into this match
Penafiel record
- They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Penafiel vs Sporting CP B head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Sporting CP B | Penafiel | Segunda Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-08 | Penafiel | Sporting CP B | Segunda Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Penafiel vs Sporting CP B odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.7%, draw 29.5%, away 33.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.52 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.24 | 2.72 |
| 888Sport | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.63 |
| Bet365 | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.57 | 3.15 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.24 | 2.72 |
| Pinnacle | 2.54 | 3.40 | 2.78 |
| SBO | 2.44 | 2.97 | 2.61 |
| Superbet | 2.52 | 3.15 | 2.77 |
| Unibet | 2.45 | 2.95 | 2.70 |
| William Hill | 2.40 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .