Garuda Lions
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Serbia Super Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan

2 – 1 Full time

1′Jeferson Marinho dos Santos
17′Bamba Dieng
28′Mirko Ivanić
44′Demba Seck
45′Derrick Luckassen
45′Stefan Milic
45′Vukasin djurdjevicSamson Nwulu
45′Iddrisu BabaMilan aleksic
52′Rade Krunić
57′Rade KrunićMahmudu Bajo
58′Timi Elsnik
61′Stefan MilicSidney Lima
61′Nikola CumicZubairu Ibrahim
68′Bamba DiengMarko Arnautović
68′Timi ElsnikOsman Bukari
69′Mirko IvanićKristiyan Balov
71′Mateja Milovanovicstefan petrovic
83′Muhammed Cham Saracevic
83′Muhammed Cham SaracevicMohammad Abu Fani
85′Milan aleksic
90′stefan gudelj
90′Mahmudu Bajo
90′aleks zekovic

Rajko Mitić Stadion, BelgradeReferee: Nenad Minaković, Serbia

FK Crvena Zvezda 69%
Draw 18%
FK Partizan 14%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 12
3 Shots on target 4
44 Possession % 56
2 Corners 5
21 Fouls 18
4 Offsides 1
4 Saves 1
342 Accurate passes 335

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK Crvena ZvezdaDrawFK Partizan
Model58.5%21.8%19.7%
Market71.9%16.4%11.7%
Final68.6%17.7%13.7%
Edge-13.4%+5.4%+8.0%

Confidence: Low

Why FK Crvena Zvezda

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.20 vs 1.23.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Crvena Zvez ↓ / FK Partizan → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 5% 2 8% 10% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 5% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

FK Crvena Zvezda and FK Partizan expected goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 2.20
FK Partizan 1.23

Total expected goals: 3.43

FK Crvena Zvezda and FK Partizan attack and defence ratings

FK Crvena Zvezda

Attack 1.51 +51%
Defence 0.83 -17%

FK Partizan

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan: result vs prediction

FK Crvena Zvezda 2 – 1 FK Partizan

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

Serbia Super Liga

Before and after this match

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Crvena Zvezda 68.6% 1.46 -13.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.6% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score Yes 63.8% 1.57 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 86.3% 1.16 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.5% 2.41 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Crvena Zvezda68.6%
Draw17.7%
FK Partizan13.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.6%
Under 2.533.4%
Both teams to scoreYes63.8%
No36.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)86.3%
12 (either side)82.3%
X2 (draw or away)31.4%
Handicap -1FK Crvena Zvezda win37.1%
Push (exactly one goal)21.4%
Loss41.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.6%
2-19.6%
2-07.8%

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan stats

FK Crvena Zvezda and FK Partizan recent form

newest first
FK Crvena Zvezda WLWWLW
FK Partizan WWLLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Crvena Zvezda and FK Partizan going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Crvena Zvezda record

  • They have won 6 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 3.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 6 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

FK Partizan record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • 56% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

7FK Crvena Zvezda wins 2Draws 1FK Partizan wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-26FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanSerbia Super Liga3-0
2026-02-22FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanSerbia Super Liga3-0
2025-09-20FK PartizanFK Crvena ZvezdaSerbia Super Liga1-2
2025-04-12FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanSuper Liga2-1
2025-02-22FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanSuper Liga3-3
2024-09-23FK PartizanFK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga0-4
2024-04-24FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanCup2-0
2024-04-20FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanSuper Liga3-2
2024-03-09FK Crvena ZvezdaFK PartizanSuper Liga2-2
2023-12-20FK PartizanFK Crvena ZvezdaSuper Liga2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Crvena Zvezda vs FK Partizan odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 70.2%, draw 16.5%, away 13.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.33 5.50 6.40
1xBet 1.26 6.50 9.25
Bet365 1.28 5.50 8.00
BetVictor 1.22 4.40 6.50
Betano 1.34 5.00 6.50
Betfair 1.29 5.50 8.00
Dafabet 1.32 5.20 6.60
Marathonbet 1.24 5.60 8.00
Pinnacle 1.27 5.60 7.55
Superbet 1.33 5.45 6.60
Unibet 1.36 4.60 5.40
William Hill 1.29 5.50 7.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.27 ▲ +0.02
X 5.55 ▲ +0.05
2 7.78 ▼ -0.92

12 snapshots recorded, from .