IMT Novi Beograd
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Garuda Lions Prediction: IMT Novi Beograd
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica
| Probability | IMT Novi Beograd | Draw | Radnik Surdulica |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.2% | 27.5% | 16.3% |
| Market | 52.5% | 26.4% | 21.1% |
| Final | 53.4% | 26.7% | 19.9% |
| Edge | +3.7% | +1.1% | -4.8% |
Why IMT Novi Beograd
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.57 vs 0.74.
- The market prices IMT Novi Beograd below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica match preview
IMT Novi Beograd hosts Radnik Surdulica in a Serbia Super Liga match on October 10, 2026. The model indicates a 52% probability of a home victory for IMT Novi Beograd, while a draw stands at 27% and Radnik Surdulica at 21%. The expected goals suggest IMT Novi Beograd will score 1.57, compared to Radnik Surdulica's 0.74. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a probability of 14%.
In terms of recent form, IMT Novi Beograd has recorded two draws, a loss, and a win in their last five matches, while Radnik Surdulica has three draws, a win, and a loss. Historically, in their last two encounters, IMT Novi Beograd has not secured a win, with one draw and one loss against Radnik Surdulica. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a blend of probabilities and market odds.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.31
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica attack and defence ratings
IMT Novi Beograd
Radnik Surdulica
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IMT Novi Beograd | 53.4% | 1.87 | +3.7% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 59.3% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.8% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IMT Novi Beograd | 53.4% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Radnik Surdulica | 19.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 59.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.6% |
| No | 57.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 46.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | IMT Novi Beograd win | 30.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 43.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.4% |
| 1-1 | 12.7% | |
| 2-0 | 12.3% |
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica stats
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica recent form
| IMT Novi Beograd |
DLDWLD |
| Radnik Surdulica |
DDDWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IMT Novi Beograd and Radnik Surdulica season so far
IMT Novi Beograd record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radnik Surdulica record
- They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- 47% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | IMT Novi Beograd | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Radnik Surdulica | IMT Novi Beograd | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Radnik Surdulica | IMT Novi Beograd | Serbia Super Liga | 2-0 |
| 2024-05-01 | IMT Novi Beograd | Radnik Surdulica | Super Liga | 5-2 |
| 2024-03-16 | Radnik Surdulica | IMT Novi Beograd | Super Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-10-06 | IMT Novi Beograd | Radnik Surdulica | Super Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.5%, draw 26.4%, away 21.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.66 | 4.57 |
| Bet365 | 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.10 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.40 | 4.35 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.77 | 3.55 | 4.30 |
| Marathonbet | 1.68 | 3.45 | 4.30 |
| Pinnacle | 1.74 | 3.48 | 4.37 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.25 | 4.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .