Mladost Lucani
vs
OFK Beograd
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mladost Lucani
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd
| Probability | Mladost Lucani | Draw | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 23.1% | 19.5% |
| Market | 34.2% | 29.3% | 36.5% |
| Final | 40.0% | 27.7% | 32.3% |
| Edge | +23.2% | -6.2% | -17.0% |
Why Mladost Lucani
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Mladost Lucani below the model: +23.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.84, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd match preview
Mladost Lucani will face OFK Beograd in the Serbia Super Liga with kickoff set for October 12, 2026. According to our model, Mladost Lucani has a 40% chance of winning, while OFK Beograd stands at 32%, and a draw is estimated at 28%. The expected goals for Mladost Lucani are 2.03, compared to OFK Beograd's 1.13. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows Mladost Lucani with three wins and two losses in their last six matches, while OFK Beograd has struggled with one win, two draws, and three losses. In their last five head-to-head encounters, Mladost Lucani has not secured a win, recording three draws and two losses against OFK Beograd. The probability of over 2.5 goals in the match is 61%, and there is a 60% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.16
Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd attack and defence ratings
Mladost Lucani
OFK Beograd
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mladost Lucani | 40.0% | 2.50 | +23.2% | 2.84 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.6% | 2.35 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mladost Lucani | 40.0% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| OFK Beograd | 32.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 59.7% |
| No | 40.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mladost Lucani win | 35.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 42.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 8.8% |
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd stats
Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd recent form
| Mladost Lucani |
WLWLWW |
| OFK Beograd |
LLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mladost Lucani and OFK Beograd season so far
Mladost Lucani record
- They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
OFK Beograd record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | Mladost Lucani | OFK Beograd | Serbia Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-23 | OFK Beograd | Mladost Lucani | Serbia Super Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | OFK Beograd | Mladost Lucani | Super Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-11-24 | OFK Beograd | Mladost Lucani | Super Liga | 0-0 |
| 2024-07-20 | Mladost Lucani | OFK Beograd | Super Liga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Mladost Lucani vs OFK Beograd odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.2%, draw 29.3%, away 36.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.32 | 2.51 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.25 | 2.62 |
| Betano | 2.65 | 3.10 | 2.50 |
| Betfair | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Marathonbet | 2.67 | 3.12 | 2.36 |
| Pinnacle | 2.83 | 3.00 | 2.47 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .