Garuda Lions
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Serbia Super Liga Β· Β·Matchday 11

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar

Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Partizan

2 – 1 Predicted score Β· 9% model probability

Bet on FK Partizan

Stadion Partizana, Belgrade

FK Partizan 58%
Draw 22%
Novi Pazar 20%

Confidence: Low  Β·  blended with market odds

Chance FK Partizan wins
58%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
96%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
66%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
2 – 1
9% of simulated outcomes

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK PartizanDrawNovi Pazar
Model52.9%22.9%24.2%
Market59.2%22.1%18.7%
Final57.6%22.3%20.1%
Edge-6.3%+0.8%+5.5%

Confidence: Low

Why FK Partizan

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 1.37.

Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded β€” the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar match preview

FK Partizan is favored to win against Novi Pazar with a probability of 57%, while a draw stands at 22% and Novi Pazar at 20%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. The expectation for over 2.5 goals is at 67%, and both teams to score is at 66%. Expected goals are calculated at 2.08 for FK Partizan and 1.37 for Novi Pazar.

In terms of recent form, FK Partizan has recorded a sequence of results including two wins and three losses, while Novi Pazar's latest performances show two wins and three draws. Historically, FK Partizan has dominated their head-to-head encounters, winning 9 out of the last 10 matches against Novi Pazar, who has only managed 1 win in that span. The confidence grade for this match is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Partizan ↓ / Novi Pazar β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 10% 6% 2 7% 9% 6% 3 7% 4+ 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 87%
3+ goals 67%
No goals 4%

FK Partizan and Novi Pazar expected goals

FK Partizan 2.08
Novi Pazar 1.37

Total expected goals: 3.46

FK Partizan and Novi Pazar attack and defence ratings

FK Partizan

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 1.34 +34%

Novi Pazar

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.97 -3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Serbia Super Liga

Before and after this match

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Partizan 57.6% 1.74 -6.3% 1.60
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 67.1% 1.49 β€” β€”
Both teams to score Yes 66.3% 1.51 β€” β€”
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 79.9% 1.25 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 Loss 47.1% 2.12 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Partizan57.6%
Draw22.3%
Novi Pazar20.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.567.1%
Under 2.532.9%
Both teams to scoreYes66.3%
No33.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)79.9%
12 (either side)77.7%
X2 (draw or away)42.4%
Handicap -1FK Partizan win32.1%
Push (exactly one goal)20.8%
Loss47.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.9%
2-19.4%
2-06.8%
Compare prices for this pick

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar stats

FK Partizan and Novi Pazar recent form

newest first
FK Partizan DLLWWL
Novi Pazar DDWDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Partizan and Novi Pazar season so far

league record

FK Partizan record

  • They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
  • 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Novi Pazar record

  • They have won 3 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 10 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

9FK Partizan wins 0Draws 1Novi Pazar wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02FK PartizanNovi PazarSerbia Super Liga2-1
2026-04-09Novi PazarFK PartizanSerbia Super Liga2-3
2025-11-09FK PartizanNovi PazarSerbia Super Liga2-0
2025-05-04Novi PazarFK PartizanSuper Liga2-1
2025-03-08FK PartizanNovi PazarSuper Liga3-2
2024-10-21Novi PazarFK PartizanSuper Liga3-4
2024-04-07FK PartizanNovi PazarSuper Liga2-0
2023-11-06Novi PazarFK PartizanSuper Liga0-1
2023-05-08FK PartizanNovi PazarSuper Liga2-0
2022-11-13FK PartizanNovi PazarSuper Liga1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Partizan vs Novi Pazar odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 59.2%, draw 22.1%, away 18.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.60 4.40 4.94
Bet365 1.57 4.20 5.00
BetVictor 1.45 3.60 4.33
Betano 1.55 4.05 4.80
Betfair 1.55 4.33 5.00
Dafabet 1.53 4.20 4.90
Marathonbet 1.51 4.15 4.65
Pinnacle 1.54 4.15 4.99
William Hill 1.57 3.90 4.50
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.55 β–Ό -0.02
X 4.15 β–Ό -0.05
2 4.90 β€”

10 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 FK Partizan Predicted score 2 – 1 Low Bet Now
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