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Serbia Super Liga · ·Matchday 12

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS

Garuda Lions Prediction: Radnik Surdulica

1 – 0 Predicted score · 11% model probability

Bet on Radnik Surdulica

Stadion FK Radnik, Sudulika

Radnik Surdulica 45%
Draw 28%
Radnicki NIS 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Radnik Surdulica wins
45%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
91%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
52%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 0
11% of simulated outcomes

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRadnik SurdulicaDrawRadnicki NIS
Model49.7%27.4%22.9%
Market43.3%27.9%28.8%
Final44.9%27.8%27.4%
Edge+6.4%-0.4%-6.0%

Confidence: Low

Why Radnik Surdulica

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.01.
  • The market prices Radnik Surdulica below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.

Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS match preview

Radnik Surdulica will face Radnicki NIS in the Serbia Super Liga on October 16, 2026. According to our model, Radnik Surdulica has a 50% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 27% and Radnicki NIS at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Radnik Surdulica, with an 11% chance. Expected goals are 1.59 for Radnik Surdulica and 1.01 for Radnicki NIS, indicating a stronger attacking performance from the hosts.

In terms of recent form, Radnik Surdulica has recorded results of L-D-D-D-W-L, while Radnicki NIS has L-L-W-L-D-L. The head-to-head statistics show that Radnik Surdulica has not secured a win against Radnicki NIS in their last two encounters, with one draw and one win for Radnicki NIS. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Radnik Surduli ↓ / Radnicki NIS → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 75%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS expected goals

Radnik Surdulica 1.59
Radnicki NIS 1.01

Total expected goals: 2.61

Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS attack and defence ratings

Radnik Surdulica

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Radnicki NIS

Attack 0.73 -27%
Defence 1.12 +12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 12 fixtures

Serbia Super Liga

Before and after this match

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Radnik Surdulica 44.9% 2.23 +6.4% 2.19
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.7% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.9% 1.93 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.3% 1.99 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Radnik Surdulica44.9%
Draw27.8%
Radnicki NIS27.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%
Both teams to scoreYes51.9%
No48.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.6%
12 (either side)72.2%
X2 (draw or away)55.1%
Handicap -1Radnik Surdulica win26.7%
Push (exactly one goal)23.0%
Loss50.3%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
1-010.6%
2-19.5%
Compare prices for this pick

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS stats

Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS recent form

newest first
Radnik Surdulica LDDDWL
Radnicki NIS LLWLDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Radnik Surdulica and Radnicki NIS season so far

league record

Radnik Surdulica record

  • They have won 3 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 11 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Radnicki NIS record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Radnik Surdulica wins 4Draws 4Radnicki NIS wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-08Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki NISSerbia Super Liga2-2
2025-10-03Radnicki NISRadnik SurdulicaSerbia Super Liga4-2
2024-04-21Radnicki NISRadnik SurdulicaSuper Liga1-0
2024-03-03Radnicki NISRadnik SurdulicaSuper Liga0-3
2023-09-22Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki NISSuper Liga0-0
2023-04-27Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki NISSuper Liga1-0
2023-02-18Radnicki NISRadnik SurdulicaSuper Liga0-0
2022-08-21Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki NISSuper Liga1-3
2021-11-28Radnicki NISRadnik SurdulicaSuper Liga3-0
2021-07-31Radnik SurdulicaRadnicki NISSuper Liga1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Radnik Surdulica vs Radnicki NIS odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.3%, draw 27.9%, away 28.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.19 3.46 3.25
Bet365 2.10 3.25 3.25
BetVictor 1.95 2.90 2.90
Betano 2.10 3.20 3.20
Betfair 2.15 3.40 3.20
Dafabet 2.14 3.40 3.15
Marathonbet 2.06 3.26 3.06
Pinnacle 2.09 3.42 3.12
William Hill 2.10 3.10 3.10
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 —
X 3.26 ▲ +0.04
2 3.15 ▼ -0.05

4 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 1 Radnik Surdulica Predicted score 1 – 0 Low Bet Now
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