Radnik Surdulica
vs
Novi Pazar
1 – 0 Full time
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar
| Probability | Radnik Surdulica | Draw | Novi Pazar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48.3% | 28.6% | 23.1% |
| Market | 49.4% | 27.1% | 23.5% |
| Final | 49.1% | 27.5% | 23.4% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +1.5% | -0.4% |
Why Radnik Surdulica
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.49 vs 0.96.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Radnik Surdulica and Novi Pazar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Radnik Surdulica and Novi Pazar attack and defence ratings
Radnik Surdulica
Novi Pazar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar: result vs prediction
Radnik Surdulica 1 – 0 Novi Pazar
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radnik Surdulica | 49.1% | 2.04 | -1.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.9% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.7% | 1.93 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Radnik Surdulica | 49.1% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Novi Pazar | 23.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.1% |
| No | 50.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Radnik Surdulica win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 51.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.6% |
| 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| 0-0 | 9.8% |
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar stats
Radnik Surdulica and Novi Pazar recent form
| Radnik Surdulica |
WLDDLD |
| Novi Pazar |
WLLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Radnik Surdulica and Novi Pazar going into this match
Radnik Surdulica record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Novi Pazar record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga | 2-0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Radnik Surdulica | Novi Pazar | Serbia Super Liga | 1-0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Novi Pazar | Radnik Surdulica | Serbia Super Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Radnik Surdulica vs Novi Pazar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 27.3%, away 23.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.89 | 3.30 | 3.85 |
| 1xBet | 1.80 | 3.44 | 3.95 |
| 888Sport | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.50 | 4.20 |
| BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.00 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.83 | 3.35 | 3.90 |
| Betfair | 1.90 | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.98 | 3.30 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.78 | 3.44 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.44 | 4.04 |
| SBO | 1.87 | 3.06 | 3.47 |
| Superbet | 1.92 | 3.35 | 3.85 |
| Unibet | 1.86 | 3.25 | 3.40 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.10 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .