Dukla Banská Bystrica
vs
Spartak Trnava
Garuda Lions Prediction: Spartak Trnava
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.15.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Spartak Trnava is the favourite, not a value bet.
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava
| Probability | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Draw | Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 23.7% | 25.6% | 50.8% |
| Market | 23.2% | 25.0% | 51.8% |
| Final | 23.4% | 25.1% | 51.5% |
| Edge | +0.1% | +0.2% | -0.3% |
Why Spartak Trnava
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.15.
Best available price on the pick: 1.83, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 51.5% × 1.83 − 1).
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava match preview
Dukla Banská Bystrica faces Spartak Trnava in the Slovakia Super Liga with a probability model indicating a 23% chance of a home win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 52% chance of an away victory for Spartak Trnava. The expected goals are 1.15 for Dukla Banská Bystrica and 1.77 for Spartak Trnava, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a 10% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, Dukla Banská Bystrica has recorded one win in their last six matches, while Spartak Trnava has managed two wins in the same period. The head-to-head record favors Spartak Trnava, who have won 7 out of the last 10 encounters, while Dukla Banská Bystrica has secured 3 victories. The model indicates a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.92
Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava attack and defence ratings
Dukla Banská Bystrica
Spartak Trnava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 14 fixtures
Before and after this match
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Spartak Trnava | 51.5% | 1.94 | -0.3% | 1.83 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.6% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | 23.4% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Spartak Trnava | 51.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.9% |
| No | 42.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Spartak Trnava win | 28.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 49.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 8.4% |
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava stats
Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava recent form
| Dukla Banská Bystrica |
LDWWLW |
| Spartak Trnava |
LDLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Dukla Banská Bystrica and Spartak Trnava season so far
Dukla Banská Bystrica record
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
Spartak Trnava record
- They have won 6 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Spartak Trnava | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Slovakia Super Liga | 3-0 |
| 2025-02-08 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Spartak Trnava | Super Liga | 1-4 |
| 2024-09-22 | Spartak Trnava | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Super Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Spartak Trnava | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Super Liga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-08 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Spartak Trnava | Super Liga | 1-2 |
| 2023-05-06 | Spartak Trnava | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Super Liga | 0-1 |
| 2023-04-08 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Spartak Trnava | Super Liga | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-08 | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Spartak Trnava | Super Liga | 0-2 |
| 2022-07-24 | Spartak Trnava | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Super Liga | 1-2 |
| 2021-06-22 | Spartak Trnava | Dukla Banská Bystrica | Friendlies Clubs | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Dukla Banská Bystrica vs Spartak Trnava odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.2%, draw 25.0%, away 51.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.11 | 3.70 | 1.77 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.75 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.65 | 1.82 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.90 | 3.75 | 1.83 |
| Marathonbet | 4.10 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| Pinnacle | 4.17 | 3.96 | 1.80 |
| SBO | 3.49 | 3.26 | 1.81 |
| William Hill | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .