Castellón
vs
Eibar
Garuda Lions Prediction: Castellón
2 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.73.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Castellón vs Eibar overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Castellón vs Eibar
| Probability | Castellón | Draw | Eibar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67.2% | 21.5% | 11.3% |
| Market | 58.4% | 22.7% | 18.9% |
| Final | 60.6% | 22.4% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -0.3% | -1.9% |
Why Castellón
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Castellón below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.0% per unit staked (our 60.6% × 1.65 − 1).
Castellón vs Eibar match preview
Castellón enters the match against Eibar with a strong probability of winning at 70%, while Eibar trails significantly at 10%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0 in favor of Castellón, with an expected goals tally of 2.18 for Castellón compared to just 0.70 for Eibar. Castellón's recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, while Eibar has experienced mixed results with two wins and three draws in the same timeframe.
In their last two encounters, Castellón has secured one win and one draw against Eibar, who have yet to claim a victory in this matchup. The model suggests a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% likelihood that both teams will score. Despite the favorable statistics for Castellón, the confidence grade remains at C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Castellón and Eibar expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.77
Castellón and Eibar attack and defence ratings
Castellón
Eibar
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 13 fixtures
Before and after this match
Castellón vs Eibar markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 60.6% | 1.65 | +2.2% | 1.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.2% | 1.85 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 43.2% | 2.32 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Castellón | 60.6% |
| Draw | 22.4% | |
| Eibar | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.8% |
| No | 54.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 39.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Castellón win | 43.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 32.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-0 | 11.9% | |
| 1-1 | 10.2% |
Castellón vs Eibar stats
Castellón and Eibar recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Castellón and Eibar season so far
Castellón record
- They have won 8 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Eibar record
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Castellón vs Eibar head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Castellón | Eibar | Segunda División | 2-1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Eibar | Castellón | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Castellón | Eibar | Segunda División | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-17 | Eibar | Castellón | Segunda División | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Castellón vs Eibar odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.4%, draw 22.7%, away 18.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.63 | 4.38 | 5.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.62 | 4.00 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.20 | 5.20 |
| Betfair | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.60 | 4.30 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.58 | 4.25 | 4.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | 4.18 | 5.30 |
| SBO | 1.53 | 3.73 | 4.48 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .