Eibar
vs
Real Valladolid
1 – 0 Full time
Eibar vs Real Valladolid overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Eibar vs Real Valladolid
| Probability | Eibar | Draw | Real Valladolid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 59.3% | 25.9% | 14.9% |
| Market | 42.1% | 31.3% | 26.6% |
| Final | 46.4% | 29.9% | 23.7% |
| Edge | +17.2% | -5.4% | -11.7% |
Why Eibar
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.70 vs 0.74.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Eibar below the model: +17.2 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Eibar and Real Valladolid expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.44
Eibar and Real Valladolid attack and defence ratings
Eibar
Real Valladolid
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Eibar vs Real Valladolid: result vs prediction
Eibar 1 – 0 Real Valladolid
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Eibar vs Real Valladolid markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 46.4% | 2.16 | +17.2% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.7% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Eibar | 46.4% |
| Draw | 29.9% | |
| Real Valladolid | 23.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.8% |
| No | 56.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 76.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Eibar win | 34.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 40.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.7% |
| 2-0 | 12.6% | |
| 1-1 | 12.1% |
Eibar vs Real Valladolid stats
Eibar and Real Valladolid recent form
| Eibar |
LLWLWL |
| Real Valladolid |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Eibar vs Real Valladolid head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Real Valladolid | Eibar | Segunda División | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-19 | Eibar | Real Valladolid | Segunda División | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Eibar vs Real Valladolid odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.8%, draw 31.3%, away 26.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.24 | 2.95 | 3.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.76 |
| 888Sport | 2.25 | 3.00 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.25 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 2.95 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.00 | 3.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.55 |
| Marathonbet | 2.19 | 2.92 | 3.66 |
| Pinnacle | 2.29 | 2.96 | 3.85 |
| SBO | 2.21 | 2.91 | 3.19 |
| Superbet | 2.25 | 3.05 | 3.55 |
| Unibet | 2.06 | 3.00 | 3.50 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .