Tenerife
vs
Almeria
1 – 0 Full time
Tenerife vs Almeria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tenerife vs Almeria
| Probability | Tenerife | Draw | Almeria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 52.3% | 25.9% | 21.8% |
| Market | 34.4% | 29.2% | 36.3% |
| Final | 38.9% | 28.4% | 32.7% |
| Edge | +17.9% | -3.3% | -14.6% |
Why Tenerife
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.74 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Tenerife below the model: +17.9 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tenerife and Almeria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.79
Tenerife and Almeria attack and defence ratings
Tenerife
Almeria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tenerife vs Almeria: result vs prediction
Tenerife 1 – 0 Almeria
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tenerife vs Almeria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 38.9% | 2.57 | +17.9% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% | 1.89 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.6% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.5% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tenerife | 38.9% |
| Draw | 28.4% | |
| Almeria | 32.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 47.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.8% |
| No | 45.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tenerife win | 29.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 47.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | |
| 1-0 | 9.6% |
Tenerife vs Almeria stats
Tenerife vs Almeria head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Tenerife vs Almeria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 34.0%, draw 29.3%, away 36.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 3.20 | 3.15 | 2.28 |
| 1xBet | 2.82 | 3.27 | 2.62 |
| 888Sport | 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.25 |
| Bet365 | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
| BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.80 | 3.20 | 2.62 |
| Betfair | 2.55 | 3.10 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.74 | 3.18 | 2.55 |
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.23 | 2.66 |
| SBO | 2.60 | 3.10 | 2.48 |
| Superbet | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.65 |
| Unibet | 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.43 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .