Sporting Gijon
vs
Burgos
1 – 0 Full time
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sporting Gijon vs Burgos
| Probability | Sporting Gijon | Draw | Burgos |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.0% | 32.4% | 36.6% |
| Market | 43.7% | 30.8% | 25.4% |
| Final | 40.6% | 31.2% | 28.2% |
| Edge | -12.7% | +1.5% | +11.2% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sporting Gijon and Burgos expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Sporting Gijon and Burgos attack and defence ratings
Sporting Gijon
Burgos
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos: result vs prediction
Sporting Gijon 1 – 0 Burgos
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 2 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Gijon | 40.6% | 2.47 | -12.7% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sporting Gijon | 40.6% |
| Draw | 31.2% | |
| Burgos | 28.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.1% |
| No | 55.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 68.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sporting Gijon win | 12.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.9% | |
| Loss | 68.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 13.3% | |
| 0-1 | 12.0% |
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos stats
Sporting Gijon and Burgos recent form
| Sporting Gijon |
DWWWLL |
| Burgos |
WWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Burgos | Sporting Gijon | Segunda División | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Sporting Gijon | Burgos | Segunda División | 2-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sporting Gijon vs Burgos odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 43.2%, draw 30.9%, away 25.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.52 | 2.88 | 3.05 |
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.19 | 3.76 |
| 888Sport | 2.50 | 2.90 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 2.18 | 3.05 | 3.75 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 2.88 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 2.17 | 3.05 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.20 | 3.85 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 2.95 | 3.29 |
| Superbet | 2.17 | 3.05 | 3.80 |
| Unibet | 2.18 | 2.90 | 3.30 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 2.90 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .