Garuda Lions
Today
Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 3

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II

2 – 2 Full time

13′C. Sanchez
30′Lander Astiazaran
38′G. Carrera
55′Sergio González
57′A. Fores
61′I. VilarrasaB. Martinez
61′J. LlabresF. Garcia
63′G. Gorosabel
68′A. ForesV. Mollejo
70′I. AguirreT. Carbonell
70′D. DiazA. Mariezkurrena
76′J. GrageraM. Exposito
76′C. SanchezJ. Karrikaburu
82′A. LebarbierJ. Eceizabarrena
82′G. GorosabelA. Adjabeng
84′Jon Balda
90′G. CarreraJ. Soroeta

Municipal El Plantio, BurgosReferee: Iosu Galech Apezteguia, Spain

Burgos 53%
Draw 28%
Real Sociedad II 19%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

12 Shots 15
4 Shots on target 5
54 Possession % 46
6 Corners 4
13 Fouls 18
2 Offsides 2
3 Saves 2
376 Accurate passes 313

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Burgos vs Real Sociedad II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityBurgosDrawReal Sociedad II
Model56.9%29.1%14.0%
Market51.6%27.9%20.5%
Final52.9%28.2%18.9%
Edge+5.3%+1.2%-6.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Burgos

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.44 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Burgos below the model: +5.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Burgos ↓ / Real Sociedad → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 1 18% 12% 2 14% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 61%
3+ goals 33%
No goals 14%

Burgos and Real Sociedad II expected goals

Burgos 1.44
Real Sociedad II 0.59

Total expected goals: 2.03

Burgos and Real Sociedad II attack and defence ratings

Burgos

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.65 -35%

Real Sociedad II

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II: result vs prediction

Burgos 2 – 2 Real Sociedad II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Burgos 52.9% 1.89 +5.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 66.8% 1.50 — —
Both teams to score No 65.0% 1.54 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 81.1% 1.23 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.1% 2.32 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Burgos52.9%
Draw28.2%
Real Sociedad II18.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.533.2%
Under 2.566.8%
Both teams to scoreYes35.0%
No65.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)81.1%
12 (either side)71.8%
X2 (draw or away)47.1%
Handicap -1Burgos win29.9%
Push (exactly one goal)27.1%
Loss43.1%
Correct score (top 3)1-017.8%
0-014.2%
2-013.7%

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II stats

Burgos and Real Sociedad II recent form

newest first
Burgos LWWWWD
Real Sociedad II WLDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3Burgos wins 4Draws 1Real Sociedad II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-18BurgosReal Sociedad IIFriendlies Clubs2-0
2026-05-03Real Sociedad IIBurgosSegunda División0-0
2025-10-25BurgosReal Sociedad IISegunda División1-0
2022-03-13BurgosReal Sociedad IISegunda División0-0
2021-12-05Real Sociedad IIBurgosSegunda División0-1
2021-07-31Real Sociedad IIBurgosFriendlies Clubs0-0
2020-01-12BurgosReal Sociedad IIPrimera División RFEF - Group 20-2
2019-08-24Real Sociedad IIBurgosPrimera División RFEF - Group 21-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Burgos vs Real Sociedad II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 51.6%, draw 27.9%, away 20.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.81 3.35 4.55
1xBet 1.83 3.48 4.78
Bet365 1.80 3.30 4.75
BetVictor 1.80 3.30 4.33
Betano 1.85 3.35 4.80
Betfair 1.75 3.25 4.40
Dafabet 1.86 3.40 4.60
Marathonbet 1.78 3.38 4.65
Pinnacle 1.87 3.52 4.65
SBO 1.81 3.23 4.07
Superbet 1.85 3.40 4.55
Unibet 1.74 3.30 4.50
William Hill 1.80 3.20 4.40

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▲ +0.08
X 3.35 ▼ -0.05
2 4.55 ▼ -0.25

10 snapshots recorded, from .