Garuda Lions
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Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 3

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC

3 – 0 Full time

8′AnuarA. Petxa
18′Alejandro Meléndez
20′A. Sala
50′A. Fuentes
55′J. CerdaA. Roca
64′M. MorlanesA. Sanchez
64′A. FuentesA. Buksa
64′Z. LuvumboA. Liso
67′Alex Sala
72′J. EscobarA. Osoro
72′C. TeguiaA. Betancourt
74′Antoniu Roca
78′Adrián Lapeña
84′T. LatoA. Soumahoro
87′Yann Bodiger
88′A. CamachoMatos Jose
88′Y. BodigerA. R. Gonzalez
89′A. Buksa

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Palma de MallorcaReferee: Abraham Dominguez Cervantes, Spain

Mallorca 61%
Draw 23%
AD Ceuta FC 16%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 5
4 Shots on target 0
53 Possession % 47
3 Corners 3
11 Fouls 14
2 Offsides 1
1 Saves 1
435 Accurate passes 368

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityMallorcaDrawAD Ceuta FC
Model57.7%23.9%18.4%
Market62.2%22.5%15.3%
Final61.1%22.8%16.1%
Edge-4.5%+1.5%+3.0%

Confidence: Medium

Why Mallorca

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.02.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Mallorca ↓ / AD Ceuta FC → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 9% 11% 2 10% 10% 3 6% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

Mallorca and AD Ceuta FC expected goals

Mallorca 1.93
AD Ceuta FC 1.02

Total expected goals: 2.95

Mallorca and AD Ceuta FC attack and defence ratings

Mallorca

Attack 1.03 +3%
Defence 1.06 +6%

AD Ceuta FC

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 1.30 +30%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC: result vs prediction

Mallorca 3 – 0 AD Ceuta FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Mallorca 61.1% 1.64 -4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.5% 1.77 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.5% 1.80 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 83.9% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.2% 2.37 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Mallorca61.1%
Draw22.8%
AD Ceuta FC16.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.5%
Under 2.543.5%
Both teams to scoreYes55.5%
No44.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)83.9%
12 (either side)77.2%
X2 (draw or away)38.9%
Handicap -1Mallorca win34.9%
Push (exactly one goal)22.9%
Loss42.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.3%
2-19.9%
2-09.8%

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC stats

Mallorca and AD Ceuta FC recent form

newest first
Mallorca LWWLLD
AD Ceuta FC LLWWLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Mallorca vs AD Ceuta FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 62.2%, draw 22.5%, away 15.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.52 4.10 6.00
1xBet 1.50 4.47 6.53
Bet365 1.48 4.00 6.50
BetVictor 1.45 4.20 6.00
Betano 1.55 4.15 6.10
Betfair 1.44 4.00 6.00
Marathonbet 1.46 4.35 6.35
Pinnacle 1.50 4.47 6.04
SBO 1.44 3.76 5.22
Unibet 1.48 4.10 5.40
William Hill 1.44 4.00 5.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.48 ▼ -0.01
X 4.10 —
2 6.00 ▼ -0.02

7 snapshots recorded, from .