Garuda Lions
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Segunda División · Full time ·Matchday 3

Albacete vs Real Oviedo

0 – 1 Full time

Estadio Carlos Belmonte, AlbaceteReferee: Eder Mallo Fernandez, Spain

Albacete 44%
Draw 29%
Real Oviedo 27%

Confidence: Medium  ·  blended with market odds

Albacete vs Real Oviedo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Albacete vs Real Oviedo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAlbaceteDrawReal Oviedo
Model59.0%24.6%16.4%
Market38.8%30.1%31.1%
Final43.9%28.7%27.4%
Edge+20.1%-5.4%-14.7%

Confidence: Medium

Why Albacete

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.87.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Albacete below the model: +20.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Albacete ↓ / Real Oviedo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 11% 12% 2 11% 10% 3 7% 6% 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Albacete and Real Oviedo expected goals

Albacete 1.83
Real Oviedo 0.87

Total expected goals: 2.70

Albacete and Real Oviedo attack and defence ratings

Albacete

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Real Oviedo

Attack 0.71 -29%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Albacete vs Real Oviedo: result vs prediction

Albacete 0 – 1 Real Oviedo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Segunda División

Before and after this match

Albacete vs Real Oviedo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Albacete 43.9% 2.28 +20.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.7% 1.97 — —
Both teams to score No 50.1% 1.99 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 72.6% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 41.0% 2.44 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Albacete43.9%
Draw28.7%
Real Oviedo27.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.7%
Under 2.549.3%
Both teams to scoreYes49.9%
No50.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.6%
12 (either side)71.3%
X2 (draw or away)56.1%
Handicap -1Albacete win35.0%
Push (exactly one goal)24.0%
Loss41.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.8%
2-011.3%
1-011.2%

Albacete vs Real Oviedo stats

Albacete and Real Oviedo recent form

newest first
Albacete LLLWWW
Real Oviedo LDLLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Albacete vs Real Oviedo head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Albacete wins 3Draws 5Real Oviedo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-02-16Real OviedoAlbaceteSegunda División1-0
2024-11-10AlbaceteReal OviedoSegunda División2-2
2024-03-09AlbaceteReal OviedoSegunda División1-2
2023-10-13Real OviedoAlbaceteSegunda División3-0
2023-02-26Real OviedoAlbaceteSegunda División1-1
2022-10-15AlbaceteReal OviedoSegunda División1-0
2021-01-30Real OviedoAlbaceteSegunda División0-1
2020-10-03AlbaceteReal OviedoSegunda División1-1
2020-02-02Real OviedoAlbaceteSegunda División3-1
2019-10-13AlbaceteReal OviedoSegunda División1-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Albacete vs Real Oviedo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 38.8%, draw 30.1%, away 31.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.35 3.10 3.15
1xBet 2.47 3.15 3.13
Bet365 2.45 3.20 3.00
BetVictor 2.38 3.00 2.90
Betano 2.52 3.15 3.00
Betfair 2.30 3.00 2.90
Dafabet 2.48 3.15 3.00
Marathonbet 2.40 3.06 3.04
Pinnacle 2.49 3.11 3.08
SBO 2.31 2.83 2.75
Superbet 2.47 3.15 3.05
Unibet 2.28 2.95 3.05
William Hill 2.40 2.90 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.40 —
X 3.10 —
2 3.00 ▼ -0.05

8 snapshots recorded, from .