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Superettan · Full time ·Matchday 20

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF

2 – 1 Full time

Norrkopings IdrottsparkReferee: J. Svraka

IFK Norrkoping 63%
Draw 21%
Falkenbergs FF 16%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF overview

Garuda Lions analysis: IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIFK NorrkopingDrawFalkenbergs FF
Model70.2%19.4%10.4%
Market60.3%21.8%17.9%
Final62.7%21.2%16.0%
Edge+9.9%-2.5%-7.5%

Confidence: Low

Why IFK Norrkoping

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.27 vs 0.78.
  • Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices IFK Norrkoping below the model: +9.9 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

IFK Norrkoping ↓ / Falkenbergs FF → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 10% 9% 2 12% 10% 3 9% 7% 4+ 9% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 82%
3+ goals 59%
No goals 6%

IFK Norrkoping and Falkenbergs FF expected goals

IFK Norrkoping 2.27
Falkenbergs FF 0.78

Total expected goals: 3.05

IFK Norrkoping and Falkenbergs FF attack and defence ratings

IFK Norrkoping

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.47 -53%

Falkenbergs FF

Attack 1.29 +29%
Defence 1.06 +6%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF: result vs prediction

IFK Norrkoping 2 – 1 Falkenbergs FF

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 20 fixtures

Superettan

Before and after this match

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 IFK Norrkoping 62.7% 1.59 +9.9% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.6% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score No 50.7% 1.97 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 84.0% 1.19 — —
Handicap -1 IFK Norrkoping win 47.5% 2.10 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2IFK Norrkoping62.7%
Draw21.2%
Falkenbergs FF16.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%
Both teams to scoreYes49.3%
No50.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)84.0%
12 (either side)78.8%
X2 (draw or away)37.3%
Handicap -1IFK Norrkoping win47.5%
Push (exactly one goal)22.7%
Loss29.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.2%
1-010.0%
2-19.5%

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF stats

IFK Norrkoping and Falkenbergs FF recent form

newest first
IFK Norrkoping WWWWWW
Falkenbergs FF DWDLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

IFK Norrkoping and Falkenbergs FF going into this match

league record before kick-off

IFK Norrkoping record

  • They have won 15 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
  • 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Falkenbergs FF record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

5IFK Norrkoping wins 1Draws 2Falkenbergs FF wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-05Falkenbergs FFIFK NorrkopingSuperettan1-0
2020-11-23IFK NorrkopingFalkenbergs FFAllsvenskan4-1
2020-07-26Falkenbergs FFIFK NorrkopingAllsvenskan3-3
2020-03-07IFK NorrkopingFalkenbergs FFSvenska Cupen1-0
2019-09-29Falkenbergs FFIFK NorrkopingAllsvenskan0-2
2019-04-19IFK NorrkopingFalkenbergs FFAllsvenskan4-3
2016-10-23IFK NorrkopingFalkenbergs FFAllsvenskan2-1
2016-04-22Falkenbergs FFIFK NorrkopingAllsvenskan2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

IFK Norrkoping vs Falkenbergs FF odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 60.0%, draw 22.1%, away 17.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.57 4.10 5.25
1xBet 1.55 4.25 5.17
888Sport 1.57 3.80 4.60
Bet365 1.50 3.90 5.00
BetVictor 1.53 4.33 5.25
Betano 1.55 4.10 5.20
Betfair 1.50 4.33 5.50
Dafabet 1.54 4.30 5.20
Marathonbet 1.53 4.25 5.25
Pinnacle 1.56 4.42 5.39
SBO 1.50 4.12 5.13
Superbet 1.54 4.25 5.00
Unibet 1.58 4.00 4.50
William Hill 1.55 3.90 4.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.54 ▼ -0.03
X 4.25 ▲ +0.15
2 5.19 ▲ +0.24

6 snapshots recorded, from .