Garuda Lions
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Superettan · Full time ·Matchday 20

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

2 – 1 Full time

Behrn Arena, OrebroReferee: Fredrik Oppong, Sweden

Orebro SK 30%
Draw 26%
Varbergs BoIS FC 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOrebro SKDrawVarbergs BoIS FC
Model22.9%22.8%54.3%
Market32.8%27.2%40.0%
Final30.3%26.1%43.6%
Edge-9.9%-4.4%+14.3%

Confidence: Low

Why Varbergs BoIS FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 1.32.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Varbergs BoIS FC below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Orebro SK ↓ / Varbergs BoIS → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 7% 5% 1 10% 10% 7% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected goals

Orebro SK 1.32
Varbergs BoIS FC 2.09

Total expected goals: 3.41

Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC attack and defence ratings

Orebro SK

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 1.29 +29%

Varbergs BoIS FC

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: result vs prediction

Orebro SK 2 – 1 Varbergs BoIS FC

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 20 fixtures

Superettan

Before and after this match

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Varbergs BoIS FC 43.6% 2.29 +14.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 66.1% 1.51 — —
Both teams to score Yes 65.0% 1.54 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.9% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.7% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Orebro SK30.3%
Draw26.1%
Varbergs BoIS FC43.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.566.1%
Under 2.533.9%
Both teams to scoreYes65.0%
No35.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.4%
12 (either side)73.9%
X2 (draw or away)69.7%
Handicap -1Varbergs BoIS FC win33.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.1%
Loss45.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-110.0%
1-29.5%
0-27.2%

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC stats

Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC recent form

newest first
Orebro SK WDLLDL
Varbergs BoIS FC WDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Orebro SK and Varbergs BoIS FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Orebro SK record

  • They have won 4 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.

Varbergs BoIS FC record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

2Orebro SK wins 3Draws 4Varbergs BoIS FC wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-02Varbergs BoIS FCOrebro SKSuperettan0-0
2025-09-24Orebro SKVarbergs BoIS FCSuperettan1-1
2025-04-07Varbergs BoIS FCOrebro SKSuperettan2-1
2024-10-05Varbergs BoIS FCOrebro SKSuperettan1-1
2024-04-22Orebro SKVarbergs BoIS FCSuperettan3-1
2021-09-13Orebro SKVarbergs BoIS FCAllsvenskan0-3
2021-08-16Varbergs BoIS FCOrebro SKAllsvenskan1-0
2020-08-23Varbergs BoIS FCOrebro SKAllsvenskan2-1
2020-07-12Orebro SKVarbergs BoIS FCAllsvenskan1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Orebro SK vs Varbergs BoIS FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.8%, draw 27.3%, away 39.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.85 3.50 2.30
1xBet 2.91 3.34 2.33
888Sport 2.70 3.00 2.40
Bet365 2.70 3.40 2.20
BetVictor 2.88 3.50 2.25
Betano 2.77 3.40 2.35
Betfair 2.80 3.60 2.25
Dafabet 2.85 3.45 2.34
Marathonbet 2.90 3.32 2.31
Pinnacle 3.02 3.40 2.37
SBO 2.72 3.23 2.31
Superbet 2.82 3.35 2.32
Unibet 2.63 3.35 2.33
William Hill 2.80 3.10 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.82 ▲ +0.07
X 3.40 ▲ +0.12
2 2.31 ▼ -0.09

9 snapshots recorded, from .