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Superettan · Full time ·Matchday 21

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage

4 – 1 Full time

Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, FalkenbergReferee: Toni Galic, Sweden

Falkenbergs FF 50%
Draw 25%
IK brage 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFalkenbergs FFDrawIK brage
Model62.6%19.0%18.4%
Market45.5%26.6%27.9%
Final49.8%24.7%25.5%
Edge+17.1%-7.6%-9.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Falkenbergs FF

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.61 vs 1.41.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Falkenbergs FF below the model: +17.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Falkenbergs FF ↓ / IK brage → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 6% 9% 6% 3 5% 8% 5% 4+ 7% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 76%
No goals 2%

Falkenbergs FF and IK brage expected goals

Falkenbergs FF 2.61
IK brage 1.41

Total expected goals: 4.02

Falkenbergs FF and IK brage attack and defence ratings

Falkenbergs FF

Attack 1.22 +22%
Defence 1.09 +9%

IK brage

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 1.35 +35%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage: result vs prediction

Falkenbergs FF 4 – 1 IK brage

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Superettan

Before and after this match

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Falkenbergs FF 49.8% 2.01 +17.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 76.4% 1.31 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.6% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.3% 1.33 — —
Handicap -1 Falkenbergs FF win 42.7% 2.34 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Falkenbergs FF49.8%
Draw24.7%
IK brage25.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.576.4%
Under 2.523.6%
Both teams to scoreYes70.6%
No29.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.5%
12 (either side)75.3%
X2 (draw or away)50.2%
Handicap -1Falkenbergs FF win42.7%
Push (exactly one goal)19.9%
Loss37.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.6%
3-17.5%
1-17.3%

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage stats

Falkenbergs FF and IK brage recent form

newest first
Falkenbergs FF LDWDLW
IK brage LLDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Falkenbergs FF and IK brage going into this match

league record before kick-off

Falkenbergs FF record

  • They have won 11 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.6 at home.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IK brage record

  • They have won 5 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 22 matches.
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage head-to-head

Last 7 meetings

5Falkenbergs FF wins 0Draws 2IK brage wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-26IK brageFalkenbergs FFSuperettan2-4
2025-08-09Falkenbergs FFIK brageSuperettan0-1
2025-04-07IK brageFalkenbergs FFSuperettan0-2
2021-11-27Falkenbergs FFIK brageSuperettan1-2
2021-04-17IK brageFalkenbergs FFSuperettan0-1
2018-09-28Falkenbergs FFIK brageSuperettan3-2
2018-05-12IK brageFalkenbergs FFSuperettan3-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Falkenbergs FF vs IK brage odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.5%, draw 26.6%, away 27.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.05 3.60 3.25
1xBet 2.02 3.46 3.45
Bet365 1.95 3.40 3.30
Betano 2.07 3.45 3.25
Betfair 2.00 3.75 3.30
Dafabet 2.04 3.50 3.30
Marathonbet 2.00 3.46 3.44
Pinnacle 2.02 3.53 3.50
SBO 2.03 3.16 2.93
Superbet 2.05 3.45 3.30
Unibet 2.00 3.55 3.10
William Hill 1.95 3.30 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.02 ▼ -0.02
X 3.46 ▼ -0.14
2 3.30 ▲ +0.19

13 snapshots recorded, from .