Garuda Lions
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Superettan · Full time ·Matchday 21

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo

0 – 1 Full time

Skarsjövallen, LjungskileReferee: Max Persson, Sweden

Ljungskile SK 45%
Draw 26%
IFK Varnamo 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLjungskile SKDrawIFK Varnamo
Model48.2%27.4%24.4%
Market43.9%25.9%30.2%
Final44.9%26.3%28.7%
Edge+4.4%+1.4%-5.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Ljungskile SK

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.59 vs 1.07.
  • The market prices Ljungskile SK below the model: +4.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ljungskile SK ↓ / IFK Varnamo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 13% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo expected goals

Ljungskile SK 1.59
IFK Varnamo 1.07

Total expected goals: 2.66

Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo attack and defence ratings

Ljungskile SK

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.90 -10%

IFK Varnamo

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 1.03 +3%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo: result vs prediction

Ljungskile SK 0 – 1 IFK Varnamo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 21 fixtures

Superettan

Before and after this match

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ljungskile SK 44.9% 2.22 +4.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 50.3% 1.99 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.5% 1.87 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.7% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 51.8% 1.93 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ljungskile SK44.9%
Draw26.3%
IFK Varnamo28.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.549.7%
Under 2.550.3%
Both teams to scoreYes53.5%
No46.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)71.3%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)55.1%
Handicap -1Ljungskile SK win25.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.5%
Loss51.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
1-09.9%
2-19.5%

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo stats

Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo recent form

newest first
Ljungskile SK DWLLDW
IFK Varnamo DWDWWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ljungskile SK and IFK Varnamo going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ljungskile SK record

  • They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IFK Varnamo record

  • They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 22 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

5Ljungskile SK wins 0Draws 0IFK Varnamo wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-19IFK VarnamoLjungskile SKSuperettan2-3
2019-09-29Ljungskile SKIFK VarnamoEttan - Södra3-0
2019-06-02IFK VarnamoLjungskile SKEttan - Södra0-2
2016-10-02Ljungskile SKIFK VarnamoSuperettan2-0
2016-04-10IFK VarnamoLjungskile SKSuperettan0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ljungskile SK vs IFK Varnamo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.9%, draw 25.9%, away 30.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.10 3.65 3.10
1xBet 2.15 3.50 3.10
Bet365 2.10 3.50 2.90
BetVictor 2.10 3.70 3.00
Betano 2.12 3.55 3.05
Betfair 2.10 3.80 3.10
Dafabet 2.14 3.60 3.05
Marathonbet 2.13 3.50 3.08
Pinnacle 2.18 3.55 3.11
SBO 2.00 3.32 2.86
Superbet 2.12 3.55 3.05
Unibet 2.06 3.40 3.10
William Hill 2.10 3.25 3.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.10 ▲ +0.03
X 3.55 ▼ -0.09
2 3.05 ▼ -0.05

8 snapshots recorded, from .