Superettan · 2026-09-14T17:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 24

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC

1 – 2 Full time

1′			charlie axede
58′			Wilhelm Arlig
62′			N.JohanssonNiklas·Dahlstrom
62′			Jonathan nilssonDante Oliver Alfonsi
62′			Albin WinboLucas Kåhed
75′			Karl Jamie BichisIbrahim Adewale
75′			olle backlundaldin nedzibovic
75′			Laorent ShabaniOlle Werner
79′			filip gustafsson
84′			Erion Sadiku
85′			Wilhelm ArligShanyder Borgelin
90′			Lucas Kåhed

Norrby IF

32%

Draw

27%

Varbergs BoIS FC

40%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

19	Shots	8
8	Shots on target	3
52	Possession %	48
12	Corners	6

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Norrby IF	Draw	Varbergs BoIS FC
Model	30.9%	29.6%	39.5%
Market	33.0%	26.6%	40.4%
Final	32.5%	27.3%	40.2%
Edge	-2.1%	+3.0%	-0.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Varbergs BoIS FC

Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

90%

2+ goals

72%

3+ goals

45%

No goals

10%

Norrby IF and Varbergs BoIS FC expected goals

Norrby IF

1.15

Varbergs BoIS FC

1.33

Total expected goals: 2.48

Norrby IF and Varbergs BoIS FC attack and defence ratings

Norrby IF

Attack

0.79 -21%

Defence

0.95 -5%

Varbergs BoIS FC

Attack

1.07 +7%

Defence

0.93 -7%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC: result vs prediction

Norrby IF 1 – 2 Varbergs BoIS FC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 24 fixtures

Superettan

IFK Norrkoping v Oddevold — match page · 2026-09-13
Ljungskile SK vs Falkenbergs FF — team news & stats · 2026-09-13
Orebro SK vs United Nordic · 2026-09-14
Ostersunds FK vs Helsingborg — team news & stats · 2026-09-14
IFK Varnamo vs Osters IF · 2026-09-15
IK brage v Sandviken — match page · 2026-09-15
Landskrona BoIS vs GIF Sundsvall — team news & stats · 2026-09-15

Before and after this match

Norrby IF, previous: Ljungskile SK v Norrby IF analysis
Norrby IF, next: Helsingborg – Norrby IF, 2026-09-20
Varbergs BoIS FC, previous: Varbergs BoIS FC – IFK Norrkoping, 2026-09-10
Varbergs BoIS FC, next: Varbergs BoIS FC – IK brage, 2026-09-19

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Varbergs BoIS FC	40.2%	2.49	-0.9%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	55.0%	1.82	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	51.4%	1.94	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	72.7%	1.38	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	60.5%	1.65	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Norrby IF	32.5%
	Draw	27.3%
	Varbergs BoIS FC	40.2%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	45.0%
	Under 2.5	55.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	51.4%
	No	48.6%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	59.8%
	12 (either side)	72.7%
	X2 (draw or away)	67.5%
Handicap -1	Varbergs BoIS FC win	18.7%
	Push (exactly one goal)	20.9%
	Loss	60.5%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	14.1%
	0-1	9.9%
	0-0	9.7%

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC stats

Norrby IF and Varbergs BoIS FC recent form

newest first

Norrby IF	LLLWDL
Varbergs BoIS FC	LDWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Norrby IF and Varbergs BoIS FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Norrby IF record

They have won 4 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
They have kept 3 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 23 matches.
34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Varbergs BoIS FC record

They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 23 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 23 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Norrby IF wins 3Draws 6Varbergs BoIS FC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-07-11	Varbergs BoIS FC	Norrby IF	Friendlies Clubs	4-2
2026-06-10	Varbergs BoIS FC	Norrby IF	Superettan	2-0
2023-03-25	Varbergs BoIS FC	Norrby IF	Friendlies Clubs	3-2
2022-06-16	Varbergs BoIS FC	Norrby IF	Friendlies Clubs	1-1
2022-03-26	Norrby IF	Varbergs BoIS FC	Friendlies Clubs	2-3
2019-09-15	Norrby IF	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	1-1
2019-06-15	Varbergs BoIS FC	Norrby IF	Superettan	3-2
2018-10-07	Varbergs BoIS FC	Norrby IF	Superettan	4-0
2018-04-08	Norrby IF	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	2-1
2017-09-04	Norrby IF	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Norrby IF vs Varbergs BoIS FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 26.7%, away 40.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.90	3.60	2.25
1xBet	2.82	3.52	2.30
Bet365	3.00	3.40	2.30
BetVictor	2.88	3.50	2.30
Betano	2.82	3.40	2.32
Betfair	2.80	3.60	2.25
Dafabet	2.85	3.45	2.27
Marathonbet	2.81	3.52	2.28
Pinnacle	2.87	3.69	2.33
SBO	2.73	3.22	2.31
Unibet	2.80	3.40	2.20
William Hill	2.70	3.30	2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.82 ▼ -0.02

X 3.50 ▲ +0.10

2 2.30 ▲ +0.07

14 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-08T08:10:02Z.