Superettan · 2026-09-19T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 25

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage

3 – 2 Full time

34′			Erion Sadiku
36′			Filip Trpchevski
51′			mass sise
53′			Dante Oliver Alfonsi
61′			Isak Vidjeskog
62′			IK brage
66′			Ozor Victor OkekeYork Rafael
67′			Dante Oliver AlfonsiShanyder Borgelin
72′			Albin WinboJonathan nilsson
72′			Jacob Stenssonoliwer stark
78′			mass siseJakob Römo Skille
80′			Laorent ShabaniOlle Werner
80′			Isak VidjeskogLucas Kåhed
84′			Jonathan nilsson
86′			Alex MortensenNoah Östberg
86′			Gideon GranstromAnders Hellblom

Påskbergsvallen, VarbergReferee: Per Martin Melin

Varbergs BoIS FC

58%

Draw

23%

IK brage

19%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

15	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	3
63	Possession %	37
12	Corners	2

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Varbergs BoIS FC	Draw	IK brage
Model	61.1%	22.1%	16.9%
Market	57.4%	23.0%	19.6%
Final	58.3%	22.7%	18.9%
Edge	+3.7%	-0.9%	-2.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Varbergs BoIS FC

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.11 vs 1.05.
Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
The market prices Varbergs BoIS FC below the model: +3.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

95%

2+ goals

83%

3+ goals

61%

No goals

Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage expected goals

Varbergs BoIS FC

2.11

IK brage

1.05

Total expected goals: 3.16

Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage attack and defence ratings

Varbergs BoIS FC

Attack

1.08 +8%

Defence

0.92 -8%

IK brage

Attack

0.87 -13%

Defence

1.27 +27%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage: result vs prediction

Varbergs BoIS FC 3 – 2 IK brage

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 25 fixtures

Superettan

Falkenbergs FF vs Ostersunds FK · 2026-09-18
Osters IF v IFK Norrkoping — match page · 2026-09-19
United Nordic vs Landskrona BoIS — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
Oddevold v IFK Varnamo — match page · 2026-09-19
Sandviken vs Orebro SK — team news & stats · 2026-09-19
GIF Sundsvall vs Ljungskile SK · 2026-09-20
Helsingborg v Norrby IF — match page · 2026-09-20

Before and after this match

Varbergs BoIS FC, previous: Norrby IF – Varbergs BoIS FC, 2026-09-14
Varbergs BoIS FC, next: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: odds and pick
IK brage, previous: IK brage vs Sandviken prediction
IK brage, next: IK brage vs Helsingborg prediction

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Varbergs BoIS FC	58.3%	1.71	+3.7%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.3%	1.63	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	58.0%	1.72	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.1%	1.23	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	39.3%	2.55	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Varbergs BoIS FC	58.3%
	Draw	22.7%
	IK brage	18.9%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	61.3%
	Under 2.5	38.7%
Both teams to score	Yes	58.0%
	No	42.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	81.1%
	12 (either side)	77.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	41.7%
Handicap -1	Varbergs BoIS FC win	38.4%
	Push (exactly one goal)	22.3%
	Loss	39.3%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	10.3%
	2-1	9.9%
	2-0	9.5%

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage stats

Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage recent form

newest first

Varbergs BoIS FC	WLDWLW
IK brage	DDLLLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Varbergs BoIS FC and IK brage going into this match

league record before kick-off

Varbergs BoIS FC record

They have won 12 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IK brage record

They have won 5 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 24 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 24 matches.
42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

1Varbergs BoIS FC wins 3Draws 5IK brage wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-26	IK brage	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	2-2
2025-11-01	Varbergs BoIS FC	IK brage	Superettan	1-2
2025-04-13	IK brage	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	1-1
2024-09-22	Varbergs BoIS FC	IK brage	Superettan	0-1
2024-04-01	IK brage	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	1-0
2019-08-19	Varbergs BoIS FC	IK brage	Superettan	0-0
2019-04-28	IK brage	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	1-2
2018-11-05	Varbergs BoIS FC	IK brage	Superettan	1-2
2018-06-09	IK brage	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Varbergs BoIS FC vs IK brage odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 57.4%, draw 23.0%, away 19.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	1.62	4.05	4.68
Bet365	1.60	3.90	4.33
BetVictor	1.62	4.00	4.80
Betano	1.65	3.85	4.65
Betfair	1.60	4.10	5.00
Marathonbet	1.60	4.05	4.70
Pinnacle	1.64	4.24	4.88
SBO	1.60	3.49	4.24
William Hill	1.60	3.80	4.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.60 ▼ -0.23

X 4.00 ▲ +0.25

2 4.68 ▲ +0.96

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-09-13T08:10:02Z.