Ostersunds FK
vs
Varbergs BoIS FC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ostersunds FK
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC
| Probability | Ostersunds FK | Draw | Varbergs BoIS FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 42.9% | 33.5% | 23.6% |
| Market | 44.1% | 27.7% | 28.2% |
| Final | 43.8% | 29.2% | 27.0% |
| Edge | -1.2% | +5.8% | -4.6% |
Why Ostersunds FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.77.
Best available price on the pick: 2.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC match preview
Ostersunds FK faces Varbergs BoIS FC in the Superettan with a kickoff scheduled for October 10, 2026. The model assigns Ostersunds FK a 43% chance of winning, while Varbergs BoIS FC has a 24% probability of securing victory, and a draw stands at 34%. The expected goals for Ostersunds FK is 1.14, compared to 0.77 for Varbergs BoIS FC. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 16% probability.
In terms of recent form, Ostersunds FK has recorded a series of draws and one win, showing consistency with a D-W-D-W-D-D record. Varbergs BoIS FC has had a mixed performance with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. The head-to-head results from the last three encounters show Ostersunds FK with one win, Varbergs BoIS FC with one win, and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.91
Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC attack and defence ratings
Ostersunds FK
Varbergs BoIS FC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ostersunds FK | 43.8% | 2.28 | -1.2% | 2.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 70.0% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ostersunds FK | 43.8% |
| Draw | 29.2% | |
| Varbergs BoIS FC | 27.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 30.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 70.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.0% |
| No | 62.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 56.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ostersunds FK win | 18.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 16.0% |
| 1-0 | 15.5% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC stats
Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC recent form
| Ostersunds FK |
DWDWDD |
| Varbergs BoIS FC |
WWLDWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC season so far
Ostersunds FK record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Varbergs BoIS FC record
- They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Ostersunds FK | Superettan | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Ostersunds FK | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Ostersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS FC | Superettan | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-27 | Ostersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS FC | Superettan | 2-1 |
| 2024-04-13 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Ostersunds FK | Superettan | 2-0 |
| 2023-02-18 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Ostersunds FK | Svenska Cupen | 1-0 |
| 2021-10-30 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Ostersunds FK | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2021-05-02 | Ostersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS FC | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2020-11-22 | Ostersunds FK | Varbergs BoIS FC | Allsvenskan | 0-4 |
| 2020-08-02 | Varbergs BoIS FC | Ostersunds FK | Allsvenskan | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.1%, draw 27.7%, away 28.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.09 | 3.35 | 3.30 |
| Bet365 | 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.12 | 3.30 | 3.30 |
| Betfair | 2.10 | 3.40 | 3.30 |
| Dafabet | 2.16 | 3.35 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.07 | 3.35 | 3.28 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 3.33 | 3.42 |
| SBO | 2.08 | 2.98 | 2.98 |
| William Hill | 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .