Superettan · 2026-10-10T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 26

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

1 – 1 Full time

30′			Emil Hellman
41′			Isak Vidjeskog
61′			Yannick Adjoumani
62′			Wilhelm ArligJonathan nilsson
62′			Dennis WidgrenJonathan westerberg
72′			Dante Oliver AlfonsiShanyder Borgelin
72′			Albin WinboLucas Kåhed
79′			Emil ÖzkanMolls Donald Ntchamda
87′			Jabir Abdihakim AliMario Palomino
87′			Laorent ShabaniLucas·Sibelius

Jämtkraft Arena, OstersundReferee: Karlsson Niclas

Ostersunds FK

44%

Draw

29%

Varbergs BoIS FC

27%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

0	Shots	0
0	Shots on target	0
50	Possession %	50
0	Corners	0
0	Offsides	0

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Ostersunds FK	Draw	Varbergs BoIS FC
Model	42.9%	33.5%	23.6%
Market	45.0%	27.5%	27.5%
Final	44.5%	29.0%	26.5%
Edge	-0.5%	+1.5%	-1.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Ostersunds FK

Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.14 vs 0.77.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

84%

2+ goals

58%

3+ goals

30%

No goals

16%

Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC expected goals

Ostersunds FK

1.14

Varbergs BoIS FC

0.77

Total expected goals: 1.91

Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC attack and defence ratings

Ostersunds FK

Attack

0.75 -25%

Defence

0.51 -49%

Varbergs BoIS FC

Attack

1.16 +16%

Defence

0.98 -2%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC: result vs prediction

Ostersunds FK 1 – 1 Varbergs BoIS FC

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Superettan

Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Norrby IF v Osters IF — match page · 2026-10-10
Oddevold vs United Nordic — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK · 2026-10-11
IFK Varnamo v Falkenbergs FF — match page · 2026-10-11
IK brage vs Helsingborg — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall · 2026-10-13

Before and after this match

Ostersunds FK, previous: Falkenbergs FF v Ostersunds FK analysis
Ostersunds FK, next: Sandviken vs Ostersunds FK prediction
Varbergs BoIS FC, previous: Varbergs BoIS FC – IK brage, 2026-09-19
Varbergs BoIS FC, next: Varbergs BoIS FC v Helsingborg analysis

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Ostersunds FK	44.5%	2.25	-0.5%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	70.0%	1.43	—	—
Both teams to score	No	62.0%	1.61	—	—
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	73.5%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	57.1%	1.75	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Ostersunds FK	44.5%
	Draw	29.0%
	Varbergs BoIS FC	26.5%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30.0%
	Under 2.5	70.0%
Both teams to score	Yes	38.0%
	No	62.0%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	73.5%
	12 (either side)	71.0%
	X2 (draw or away)	55.5%
Handicap -1	Ostersunds FK win	18.8%
	Push (exactly one goal)	24.1%
	Loss	57.1%
Correct score (top 3)	0-0	16.0%
	1-0	15.5%
	1-1	14.3%

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC stats

Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC recent form

newest first

Ostersunds FK	DWDWDD
Varbergs BoIS FC	WWLDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ostersunds FK and Varbergs BoIS FC going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ostersunds FK record

They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Varbergs BoIS FC record

They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 6 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Ostersunds FK wins 2Draws 6Varbergs BoIS FC wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-04-06	Varbergs BoIS FC	Ostersunds FK	Superettan	1-2
2025-08-24	Varbergs BoIS FC	Ostersunds FK	Superettan	1-1
2025-05-11	Ostersunds FK	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	0-1
2024-07-27	Ostersunds FK	Varbergs BoIS FC	Superettan	2-1
2024-04-13	Varbergs BoIS FC	Ostersunds FK	Superettan	2-0
2023-02-18	Varbergs BoIS FC	Ostersunds FK	Svenska Cupen	1-0
2021-10-30	Varbergs BoIS FC	Ostersunds FK	Allsvenskan	3-0
2021-05-02	Ostersunds FK	Varbergs BoIS FC	Allsvenskan	1-2
2020-11-22	Ostersunds FK	Varbergs BoIS FC	Allsvenskan	0-4
2020-08-02	Varbergs BoIS FC	Ostersunds FK	Allsvenskan	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 45.0%, draw 27.5%, away 27.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.09	3.35	3.30
Bet365	2.00	3.25	3.30
BetVictor	2.10	3.40	3.30
Betano	2.00	3.35	3.60
Betfair	2.00	3.40	3.50
Dafabet	2.13	3.30	3.35
Marathonbet	2.00	3.40	3.42
Pinnacle	2.04	3.29	3.91
SBO	2.02	3.07	3.24
William Hill	2.10	3.00	3.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.03 ▼ -0.03

X 3.33 ▲ +0.01

2 3.33 ▲ +0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-04T08:10:02Z.