Superettan · 2026-10-11T13:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 26

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF

1 – 2 Full time

4′			albin andersson
13′			Hugo Andersson Mella
32′			Argjend Miftari
46′			Argjend MiftariTim·Stalheden
47′			Godwin Aguda
65′			Ayo Rupia-EllisNils Bertilsson
68′			August LjungbergMusa Oluwaseyi Akinfenwa
74′			Hampus Källström
83′			Elias MohammadHugo Komano
83′			calle johanssonSigge Skorpan Jansson
83′			Hugo Andersson MellaCarl Johansson
85′			albin andersson
86′			Kai MeriluotoSimon Thern
88′			Hampus KällströmNoel Hansson

Finnvedsvallen, VenamuReferee: Sars Joakim

IFK Varnamo

39%

Draw

27%

Falkenbergs FF

35%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

8	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
46	Possession %	54
4	Corners	6

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF overview

Garuda Lions analysis: IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	IFK Varnamo	Draw	Falkenbergs FF
Model	35.2%	27.0%	37.7%
Market	40.0%	26.5%	33.5%
Final	38.8%	26.6%	34.6%
Edge	-1.2%	+0.1%	+1.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

93%

2+ goals

80%

3+ goals

56%

No goals

IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF expected goals

IFK Varnamo

1.43

Falkenbergs FF

1.48

Total expected goals: 2.91

IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF attack and defence ratings

IFK Varnamo

Attack

1.11 +11%

Defence

0.99 -1%

Falkenbergs FF

Attack

1.15 +15%

Defence

0.82 -18%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF: result vs prediction

IFK Varnamo 1 – 2 Falkenbergs FF

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 26 fixtures

Superettan

Landskrona BoIS vs Sandviken — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Ostersunds FK vs Varbergs BoIS FC · 2026-10-10
Norrby IF v Osters IF — match page · 2026-10-10
Oddevold vs United Nordic — team news & stats · 2026-10-10
Orebro SK vs Ljungskile SK · 2026-10-11
IK brage vs Helsingborg — team news & stats · 2026-10-11
IFK Norrkoping vs GIF Sundsvall · 2026-10-13

Before and after this match

IFK Varnamo, previous: Oddevold v IFK Varnamo analysis
IFK Varnamo, next: GIF Sundsvall v IFK Varnamo analysis
Falkenbergs FF, previous: Falkenbergs FF v Ostersunds FK analysis
Falkenbergs FF, next: Falkenbergs FF vs Landskrona BoIS prediction

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	IFK Varnamo	38.8%	2.58	-1.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55.7%	1.80	—	—
Both teams to score	Yes	59.9%	1.67	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	73.4%	1.36	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	64.8%	1.54	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	IFK Varnamo	38.8%
	Draw	26.6%
	Falkenbergs FF	34.6%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	55.7%
	Under 2.5	44.3%
Both teams to score	Yes	59.9%
	No	40.1%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	65.4%
	12 (either side)	73.4%
	X2 (draw or away)	61.2%
Handicap -1	IFK Varnamo win	16.9%
	Push (exactly one goal)	18.3%
	Loss	64.8%
Correct score (top 3)	1-1	12.7%
	1-2	8.5%
	2-1	8.2%

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF stats

IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF recent form

newest first

IFK Varnamo	WLWDWD
Falkenbergs FF	DWWLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

IFK Varnamo and Falkenbergs FF going into this match

league record before kick-off

IFK Varnamo record

They have won 8 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Falkenbergs FF record

They have won 13 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.5 at home.
They have kept 5 clean sheets in 25 matches.
Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

3IFK Varnamo wins 1Draws 5Falkenbergs FF wins

Date	Home	Away	Competition	Score
2026-05-23	Falkenbergs FF	IFK Varnamo	Superettan	3-1
2025-03-08	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF	Friendlies Clubs	1-0
2021-10-25	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF	Superettan	3-2
2021-07-10	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF	Friendlies Clubs	0-1
2021-05-01	Falkenbergs FF	IFK Varnamo	Superettan	0-3
2018-10-28	Falkenbergs FF	IFK Varnamo	Superettan	3-0
2018-05-29	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF	Superettan	1-4
2017-08-09	Falkenbergs FF	IFK Varnamo	Superettan	2-0
2017-06-17	IFK Varnamo	Falkenbergs FF	Superettan	1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

IFK Varnamo vs Falkenbergs FF odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.0%, draw 26.5%, away 33.5%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
1xBet	2.30	3.54	2.76
Bet365	2.25	3.30	2.70
BetVictor	2.38	3.50	2.70
Betano	2.37	3.40	2.75
Betfair	2.30	3.60	2.75
Dafabet	2.37	3.45	2.80
Marathonbet	2.28	3.54	2.74
Pinnacle	2.40	3.62	2.81
SBO	2.25	3.26	2.64
William Hill	2.30	3.30	2.62

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▼ -0.04

X 3.48 ▲ +0.06

2 2.75 ▲ +0.02

15 snapshots recorded, from 2026-10-04T08:10:02Z.