GIF Sundsvall
vs
IFK Varnamo
Garuda Lions Prediction: IFK Varnamo
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo
| Probability | GIF Sundsvall | Draw | IFK Varnamo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.5% | 22.8% | 60.7% |
| Market | 22.4% | 23.9% | 53.7% |
| Final | 21.0% | 23.6% | 55.4% |
| Edge | -6.0% | -1.1% | +7.1% |
Why IFK Varnamo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.98.
- The market prices IFK Varnamo below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.74, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo match preview
GIF Sundsvall faces IFK Varnamo in an upcoming Superettan match with a kickoff scheduled for October 18, 2026. According to our model, GIF Sundsvall has a 22% chance of winning, while IFK Varnamo is favored with a 54% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2, with an expected goals tally of 0.98 for GIF Sundsvall and 2.04 for IFK Varnamo.
Recent form shows GIF Sundsvall with a mixed record of L-W-L-L-W-W, whereas IFK Varnamo has performed slightly better with L-W-L-W-D-W. The probabilities suggest a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood that both teams will score. In their last encounter, IFK Varnamo secured a win against GIF Sundsvall, adding to their historical advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.01
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo attack and defence ratings
GIF Sundsvall
IFK Varnamo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Varnamo | 55.4% | 1.80 | +7.1% | 1.74 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | GIF Sundsvall | 21.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| IFK Varnamo | 55.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.3% |
| No | 44.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Varnamo win | 37.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.9% | |
| Loss | 39.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.8% |
| 0-2 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 10.0% |
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo stats
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo recent form
| GIF Sundsvall |
LWLLWW |
| IFK Varnamo |
LWLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
GIF Sundsvall and IFK Varnamo season so far
GIF Sundsvall record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.4 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 26 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 46% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Varnamo record
- They have won 8 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-14 | IFK Varnamo | GIF Sundsvall | Superettan | 3-0 |
| 2022-10-19 | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2022-07-11 | IFK Varnamo | GIF Sundsvall | Allsvenskan | 1-1 |
| 2021-08-14 | GIF Sundsvall | IFK Varnamo | Superettan | 2-0 |
| 2021-04-18 | IFK Varnamo | GIF Sundsvall | Superettan | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
GIF Sundsvall vs IFK Varnamo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 22.0%, draw 24.1%, away 53.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.05 | 3.88 | 1.74 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.60 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.33 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.25 | 3.75 | 1.72 |
| Betfair | 4.33 | 4.00 | 1.73 |
| Dafabet | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.72 |
| Marathonbet | 4.05 | 3.88 | 1.72 |
| Pinnacle | 4.25 | 3.94 | 1.73 |
| SBO | 3.84 | 3.46 | 1.67 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .