IFK Norrkoping
vs
Orebro SK
Garuda Lions Prediction: IFK Norrkoping
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK
| Probability | IFK Norrkoping | Draw | Orebro SK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 74.8% | 16.8% | 8.3% |
| Market | 52.8% | 24.2% | 23.1% |
| Final | 58.3% | 22.3% | 19.4% |
| Edge | +22.1% | -7.3% | -14.7% |
Why IFK Norrkoping
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.50 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices IFK Norrkoping below the model: +22.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK match preview
IFK Norrkoping enters the match against Orebro SK with a strong probability of winning at 61%, while the visitors have a lower chance of 18%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-0, occurring at a rate of 12%. Norrkoping's expected goals stand at 2.49, indicating a solid offensive performance, while Orebro SK's expected goals are only 0.75, suggesting challenges in their attacking play.
Recent form shows IFK Norrkoping with a record of W-W-D-W-D-W, demonstrating consistent performance, whereas Orebro SK has struggled with D-L-D-W-L-D. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 63%, and both teams scoring is seen at 49%. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK attack and defence ratings
IFK Norrkoping
Orebro SK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Norrkoping | 58.3% | 1.72 | +22.1% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.0% | 1.96 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win | 53.4% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Norrkoping | 58.3% |
| Draw | 22.3% | |
| Orebro SK | 19.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.0% |
| No | 51.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win | 53.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.4% | |
| Loss | 25.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 3-0 | 10.1% | |
| 2-1 | 9.1% |
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK stats
IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK recent form
| IFK Norrkoping |
WWDWDW |
| Orebro SK |
DLDWLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IFK Norrkoping and Orebro SK season so far
IFK Norrkoping record
- They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orebro SK record
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 25 matches.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Orebro SK | IFK Norrkoping | Superettan | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IFK Norrkoping vs Orebro SK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 52.1%, draw 24.4%, away 23.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.76 | 3.82 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.75 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.75 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.81 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| Marathonbet | 1.74 | 3.82 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.79 | 3.85 | 4.02 |
| SBO | 1.80 | 3.33 | 3.43 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.50 | 3.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .