Orebro SK
vs
Falkenbergs FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Falkenbergs FF
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF
| Probability | Orebro SK | Draw | Falkenbergs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.3% | 23.9% | 43.8% |
| Market | 37.7% | 27.2% | 35.1% |
| Final | 36.4% | 26.4% | 37.3% |
| Edge | -1.3% | -0.8% | +2.2% |
Why Falkenbergs FF
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Falkenbergs FF below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.65, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -1.2% per unit staked (our 37.3% × 2.65 − 1).
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF match preview
Orebro SK faces Falkenbergs FF in an upcoming Superettan match, with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Orebro SK's last five matches resulted in two draws, two losses, and one win, while Falkenbergs FF has secured four wins, one draw, and one loss in the same period. The model assigns a 37% probability of an Orebro SK victory, a 26% chance of a draw, and a 38% likelihood of a Falkenbergs FF win.
The expected goals for the match indicate Orebro SK at 1.61 and Falkenbergs FF at 1.91, suggesting a competitive encounter. The model predicts a most likely scoreline of 1-2, with a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% probability that both teams will score. The head-to-head record over the last three matches shows one win for each team and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.50
Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF attack and defence ratings
Orebro SK
Falkenbergs FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkenbergs FF | 37.3% | 2.68 | +2.2% | 2.65 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orebro SK | 36.4% |
| Draw | 26.4% | |
| Falkenbergs FF | 37.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.9% |
| No | 31.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 63.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkenbergs FF win | 24.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.2% | |
| Loss | 56.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-1 | 7.4% |
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF stats
Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF recent form
| Orebro SK |
DDLDWL |
| Falkenbergs FF |
WWDWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orebro SK and Falkenbergs FF season so far
Orebro SK record
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 27 matches.
Falkenbergs FF record
- They have won 15 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Falkenbergs FF | Orebro SK | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Orebro SK | Falkenbergs FF | Superettan | 4-1 |
| 2025-04-29 | Falkenbergs FF | Orebro SK | Superettan | 2-1 |
| 2020-10-17 | Falkenbergs FF | Orebro SK | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2020-08-01 | Orebro SK | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2019-07-20 | Orebro SK | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan | 4-0 |
| 2019-03-31 | Falkenbergs FF | Orebro SK | Allsvenskan | 1-0 |
| 2016-08-28 | Orebro SK | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan | 3-2 |
| 2016-07-23 | Falkenbergs FF | Orebro SK | Allsvenskan | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orebro SK vs Falkenbergs FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 27.2%, away 35.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.48 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Betano | 2.52 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.60 | 2.63 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.65 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.48 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.52 | 3.51 | 2.63 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.09 | 2.54 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.20 | 2.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .