Simba
vs
Mbeya City
Garuda Lions Prediction: Simba
2 – 0 Predicted score · 17% model probability
Simba vs Mbeya City overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Simba vs Mbeya City
| Probability | Simba | Draw | Mbeya City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 80.6% | 15.0% | 4.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 80.6% | 15.0% | 4.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Simba
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 0.44.
- Better recent form: 6 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Simba vs Mbeya City match preview
Simba enters the match against Mbeya City with a strong probability of winning at 81%, reflecting their dominant recent form of six consecutive victories. The expected goals for Simba stand at 2.41, while Mbeya City is projected to score only 0.44. The most likely scoreline suggested by the model is 2-0, with a 17% likelihood.
In contrast, Mbeya City has struggled recently, with two losses in their last three matches. Their overall performance shows a mixed record, including one draw and two wins in their last six games. Historically, Simba has been dominant in head-to-head encounters, winning both of their last two matches against Mbeya City without conceding. The model indicates a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 33% chance for both teams to score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Simba and Mbeya City expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Simba and Mbeya City attack and defence ratings
Simba
Mbeya City
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Simba vs Mbeya City markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 80.6% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 66.9% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Simba | 80.6% |
| Draw | 15.0% | |
| Mbeya City | 4.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 33.1% |
| No | 66.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 85.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 19.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Simba win | 58.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.1% | |
| Loss | 19.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 16.8% |
| 3-0 | 13.5% | |
| 1-0 | 13.3% |
Simba vs Mbeya City stats
Simba and Mbeya City recent form
| Simba |
WWWWWW |
| Mbeya City |
LLDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Simba and Mbeya City season so far
Simba record
- They have won 7 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
Mbeya City record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Simba vs Mbeya City head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-17 | Mbeya City | Simba | Tanzania Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2025-12-04 | Simba | Mbeya City | Tanzania Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.