Chernihiv
vs
Inhulets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Inhulets
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Chernihiv vs Inhulets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chernihiv vs Inhulets
| Probability | Chernihiv | Draw | Inhulets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.8% | 30.3% | 38.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 30.8% | 30.3% | 38.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Inhulets
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Chernihiv vs Inhulets match preview
Chernihiv faces Inhulets in a Persha Liga clash, with model probabilities indicating a competitive matchup. Inhulets holds a slight edge with a 39% chance of victory compared to Chernihiv's 31% and a 30% likelihood of a draw. The most probable scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 10%. Expected goals suggest Chernihiv will score around 1.11, while Inhulets is projected at 1.27.
Recent form shows Chernihiv struggling with two losses and a draw in their last five matches, while Inhulets has been more successful, winning three of their last five. In head-to-head encounters, Inhulets has dominated, winning three out of the last four meetings, with Chernihiv yet to secure a victory in this period. The confidence grade for this prediction is C, based solely on model data.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chernihiv and Inhulets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.47
Chernihiv and Inhulets attack and defence ratings
Chernihiv
Inhulets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chernihiv vs Inhulets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inhulets | 38.9% | 2.57 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.5% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 69.7% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.9% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 30.8% |
| Draw | 30.3% | |
| Inhulets | 38.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.5% |
| No | 50.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 69.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Inhulets win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 62.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.4% |
| 0-0 | 10.6% | |
| 0-1 | 10.5% |
Chernihiv vs Inhulets stats
Chernihiv and Inhulets recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chernihiv and Inhulets season so far
Chernihiv record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Inhulets record
- They have won 4 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 9 matches.
Chernihiv vs Inhulets head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Chernihiv | Inhulets | Persha Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Inhulets | Chernihiv | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | Inhulets | Chernihiv | Persha Liga | 6-1 |
| 2023-08-07 | Chernihiv | Inhulets | Persha Liga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.