Persha Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 8
Yarud Mariupol'
vs
Polissya II
2 – 1 Full time
| 7′ | O. Kostrytsya | ||
| 21′ | B. Panchyshyn | ||
| 26′ | A. Remenyak | ||
| 57′ | O. Chornomorets | ||
| 60′ | S. KyslenkoN. Grytsak | ||
| 63′ | I. RomanchukM. Gryshchenko | ||
| 63′ | O. KostrytsyaV. Mezentsev | ||
| 66′ | A. Remenyak | ||
| 69′ | A. RemenyakA. Kukharuk | ||
| 69′ | O. KhakhlyovR. Kovalyuk | ||
| 76′ | V. ShepelevV. Kramar | ||
| 82′ | Y. GunichevO. Synytsya | ||
| 82′ | P. OrikhovskyiP. Maletsky | ||
| 86′ | Y. KaramanR. Babych | ||
| 87′ | B. Makouana | ||
| 90′ | N. Grytsak | ||
| 90′ | N. Grytsak |
Yarud Mariupol'
57%
Draw
24%
Polissya II
19%
Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II
| Probability | Yarud Mariupol' | Draw | Polissya II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.4% | 24.1% | 18.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 57.4% | 24.1% | 18.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.00.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
94%
2+ goals
80%
3+ goals
56%
No goals
6%
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II expected goals
Yarud Mariupol'
1.93
Polissya II
1.00
Total expected goals: 2.93
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II attack and defence ratings
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack
1.18 +18%
Defence
0.82 -18%
Polissya II
Attack
1.16 +16%
Defence
1.26 +26%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II: result vs prediction
Yarud Mariupol' 2 – 1 Polissya II
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 57.4% |
| Draw | 24.1% | |
| Polissya II | 18.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.2% |
| No | 44.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 42.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.4% |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | |
| 2-0 | 9.8% |
Yarud Mariupol' vs Polissya II stats
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II recent form
| Yarud Mariupol' |
WDWWLL |
| Polissya II |
WDLDLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Yarud Mariupol' and Polissya II going into this match
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 1.0 at home.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 7 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polissya II record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).