Probiy Horodenka
vs
Yarud Mariupol'
0 – 2 Full time
| 16′ | R. Kharuk | ||
| 20′ | S. Kyslenko | ||
| 56′ | A. RemenyakP. Maletsky | ||
| 58′ | V. GalonskyiM. Batz | ||
| 68′ | M. LopyryonokS. Yaroshenko | ||
| 74′ | R. Kharuk | ||
| 79′ | O. LepskyiM. Burenko | ||
| 79′ | M. GirnyiM. Borysenko | ||
| 79′ | P. OrikhovskyiN. Grytsak | ||
| 87′ | N. Grytsak | ||
| 88′ | V. Savchyn | ||
| 88′ | N. Grytsak | ||
| 90′ | V. KucherovK. Tsyurpalevych-Semochko | ||
| 90′ | S. KyslenkoD. Sydorenko |
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol' overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol'
| Probability | Probiy Horodenka | Draw | Yarud Mariupol' |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.5% | 21.6% | 66.0% |
| Market | 26.4% | 27.2% | 46.3% |
| Final | 22.9% | 25.8% | 51.2% |
| Edge | -14.0% | -5.7% | +19.6% |
Why Yarud Mariupol'
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.80.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Yarud Mariupol' below the model: +19.6 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Probiy Horodenka and Yarud Mariupol' expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.88
Probiy Horodenka and Yarud Mariupol' attack and defence ratings
Probiy Horodenka
Yarud Mariupol'
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol': result vs prediction
Probiy Horodenka 0 – 2 Yarud Mariupol'
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol' markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Yarud Mariupol' | 51.2% | 1.95 | +19.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 42.4% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Probiy Horodenka | 22.9% |
| Draw | 25.8% | |
| Yarud Mariupol' | 51.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.2% |
| No | 50.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Yarud Mariupol' win | 42.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 34.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.1% |
| 0-1 | 10.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.3% |
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol' stats
Probiy Horodenka and Yarud Mariupol' recent form
| Probiy Horodenka |
LLLDLD |
| Yarud Mariupol' |
DWWLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Probiy Horodenka and Yarud Mariupol' going into this match
Probiy Horodenka record
- They have won 0 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They average 1.0 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Yarud Mariupol' record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol' head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Yarud Mariupol' | Probiy Horodenka | Persha Liga | 0-0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Probiy Horodenka | Yarud Mariupol' | Persha Liga | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Probiy Horodenka vs Yarud Mariupol' odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 26.4%, draw 27.2%, away 46.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.53 | 3.30 | 1.94 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.20 | 2.02 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
| Marathonbet | 3.46 | 3.30 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | 3.16 | 3.23 | 2.00 |
| William Hill | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.91 |