Persha Liga
·
Full time
·Matchday 7
UCSA
vs
Chernihiv
3 – 2 Full time
| 3′ | P. Zakhidnyi | ||
| 13′ | M. Andrushchenko | ||
| 14′ | O. Khoblenko | ||
| 18′ | D. Plakhtyr | ||
| 20′ | V. Dvorovenko | ||
| 42′ | S. Galoyan | ||
| 51′ | V. Wojciechowski | ||
| 55′ | O. SklyarI. Potskhveria | ||
| 58′ | A. Novikov | ||
| 59′ | A. Novikov | ||
| 60′ | M. SerdyukY. Shalfeev | ||
| 60′ | S. GaloyanV. Rogozynskyi | ||
| 62′ | M. AndrushchenkoA. Emere | ||
| 66′ | A. NovikovD. Bezborodko | ||
| 66′ | D. BezgubchenkoA. Porokhnya | ||
| 68′ | Y. Kartushov | ||
| 75′ | V. KoydanD. Myronenko | ||
| 79′ | VitinhoD. Irodovskyi | ||
| 79′ | O. KhoblenkoM. Sytnykov | ||
| 90′ | R. Yuvkhymets |
UCSA
33%
Draw
30%
Chernihiv
37%
UCSA vs Chernihiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCSA vs Chernihiv
| Probability | UCSA | Draw | Chernihiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32.8% | 29.8% | 37.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 32.8% | 29.8% | 37.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
90%
2+ goals
72%
3+ goals
45%
No goals
10%
UCSA and Chernihiv expected goals
UCSA
1.18
Chernihiv
1.28
Total expected goals: 2.46
UCSA and Chernihiv attack and defence ratings
UCSA
Attack
1.04 +4%
Defence
1.44 +44%
Chernihiv
Attack
0.84 -16%
Defence
0.89 -11%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
UCSA vs Chernihiv: result vs prediction
UCSA 3 – 2 Chernihiv
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 7 fixtures
Before and after this match
UCSA vs Chernihiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 37.5% | 2.67 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 70.2% | 1.42 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.5% | 1.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 32.8% |
| Draw | 29.8% | |
| Chernihiv | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51.4% |
| No | 48.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 70.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chernihiv win | 17.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.2% | |
| Loss | 62.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| 0-1 | 9.6% |
UCSA vs Chernihiv stats
UCSA and Chernihiv recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCSA and Chernihiv going into this match
UCSA record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- 53% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chernihiv record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
UCSA vs Chernihiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
0UCSA wins
0Draws
2Chernihiv wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | UCSA | Chernihiv | Persha Liga | 0-2 |
| 2025-10-13 | Chernihiv | UCSA | Persha Liga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.