Chernihiv
vs
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lokomotiv Kyiv
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Chernihiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Chernihiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv
| Probability | Chernihiv | Draw | Lokomotiv Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 31.7% | 25.4% | 42.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 31.7% | 25.4% | 42.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Lokomotiv Kyiv
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Chernihiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv match preview
Chernihiv faces Lokomotiv Kyiv in an upcoming Persha Liga match, with probabilities indicating a 32% chance of a Chernihiv win, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 43% chance for Lokomotiv Kyiv to secure victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with an expected goals tally of 1.46 for Chernihiv and 1.71 for Lokomotiv Kyiv.
Recent form shows Chernihiv struggling with six games resulting in five losses and one win, while Lokomotiv Kyiv has a mixed record of two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 61%, and both teams scoring is projected at 64%. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Chernihiv and Lokomotiv Kyiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.17
Chernihiv and Lokomotiv Kyiv attack and defence ratings
Chernihiv
Lokomotiv Kyiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Chernihiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | 42.9% | 2.33 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chernihiv | 31.7% |
| Draw | 25.4% | |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv | 42.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 38.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.0% |
| No | 36.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lokomotiv Kyiv win | 23.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 57.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.0% | |
| 2-1 | 7.6% |
Chernihiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv stats
Chernihiv and Lokomotiv Kyiv recent form
| Chernihiv |
LLWLLL |
| Lokomotiv Kyiv |
LWLDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Chernihiv and Lokomotiv Kyiv season so far
Chernihiv record
- They have won 2 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lokomotiv Kyiv record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Chernihiv vs Lokomotiv Kyiv head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Chernihiv | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-11 | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Chernihiv | Druha Liga | 0-3 |
| 2024-08-31 | Chernihiv | Lokomotiv Kyiv | Druha Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.