Nyva Ternopil
vs
Oleksandria
Garuda Lions Prediction: Oleksandria
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Oleksandria is the favourite, not a value bet.
Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria
| Probability | Nyva Ternopil | Draw | Oleksandria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.8% | 32.8% | 29.4% |
| Market | 31.4% | 27.6% | 41.0% |
| Final | 33.0% | 28.9% | 38.1% |
| Edge | +1.6% | +1.3% | -2.9% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.9% per unit staked (our 38.1% × 2.26 − 1).
Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria match preview
Nyva Ternopil faces Oleksandria in the Persha Liga with a probability model indicating a 33% chance of a home win for Nyva, a 29% chance of a draw, and a 38% chance of an away victory for Oleksandria. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, occurring with an 11% likelihood. Both teams have shown competitive recent form, with Nyva Ternopil recording three wins and two draws in their last five matches, while Oleksandria has achieved three wins, two draws, and one loss.
In terms of expected goals, Nyva Ternopil is projected to score 1.12, while Oleksandria is expected to net 0.95. The model suggests a 34% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% probability that both teams will score during the match. The confidence grade for this prediction stands at C, indicating moderate confidence in the outcomes.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Nyva Ternopil and Oleksandria expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.07
Nyva Ternopil and Oleksandria attack and defence ratings
Nyva Ternopil
Oleksandria
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Oleksandria | 38.1% | 2.62 | -2.9% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 65.8% | 1.52 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.3% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 70.6% | 1.42 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Nyva Ternopil | 33.0% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Oleksandria | 38.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 34.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 65.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.7% |
| No | 57.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 67.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Oleksandria win | 11.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 70.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-0 | 12.7% |
Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria stats
Nyva Ternopil and Oleksandria recent form
| Nyva Ternopil |
WDWDWD |
| Oleksandria |
WDWDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Nyva Ternopil and Oleksandria season so far
Nyva Ternopil record
- They have won 5 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Oleksandria record
- They have won 7 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Oleksandria | Nyva Ternopil | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
| 2015-04-14 | Nyva Ternopil | Oleksandria | Persha Liga | 0-1 |
| 2014-08-31 | Oleksandria | Nyva Ternopil | Persha Liga | 3-0 |
| 2014-05-18 | Nyva Ternopil | Oleksandria | Persha Liga | 2-4 |
| 2013-10-04 | Oleksandria | Nyva Ternopil | Persha Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Nyva Ternopil vs Oleksandria odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.4%, draw 27.6%, away 41.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.86 | 3.25 | 2.26 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.40 | 2.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .