UCSA
vs
Polissya II
Garuda Lions Prediction: UCSA
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.39.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — UCSA is the favourite, not a value bet.
UCSA vs Polissya II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: UCSA vs Polissya II
| Probability | UCSA | Draw | Polissya II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51.7% | 23.2% | 25.1% |
| Market | 49.7% | 24.6% | 25.7% |
| Final | 50.2% | 24.3% | 25.5% |
| Edge | +0.5% | -0.4% | -0.1% |
Why UCSA
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 1.39.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.86, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.7% per unit staked (our 50.2% × 1.86 − 1).
UCSA vs Polissya II match preview
UCSA is set to face Polissya II in the Persha Liga on November 16, 2026. According to our model, UCSA has a 52% probability of winning, while Polissya II stands at 25%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The expected goals for UCSA are 2.04, compared to Polissya II's 1.39, indicating a potential scoreline of 2-1, which has a 9% likelihood.
In terms of recent form, UCSA has recorded a draw, a loss, a win, followed by two more draws and a loss, while Polissya II has struggled with six matches without a win, recording five losses and a draw. The model suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 67%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 66%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
UCSA and Polissya II expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.43
UCSA and Polissya II attack and defence ratings
UCSA
Polissya II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 16 fixtures
Before and after this match
UCSA vs Polissya II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 50.2% | 1.99 | +0.5% | 1.86 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.3% | 2.07 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UCSA | 50.2% |
| Draw | 24.3% | |
| Polissya II | 25.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.2% |
| No | 33.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | UCSA win | 31.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.7% | |
| Loss | 48.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | |
| 2-0 | 6.7% |
UCSA vs Polissya II stats
UCSA and Polissya II recent form
| UCSA |
DLWDLL |
| Polissya II |
LDLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
UCSA and Polissya II season so far
UCSA record
- They have won 3 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 15 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 15 matches.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Polissya II record
- They have won 1 of their 15 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 15 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
UCSA vs Polissya II head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Polissya II | UCSA | Persha Liga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
UCSA vs Polissya II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.7%, draw 24.6%, away 25.7%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dafabet | 1.86 | 3.75 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .